Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, April 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
722 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACKBUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO BURNET
COUNTY ALONG THE DRY-LINE. LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING ESE AND WILL
IMPACT BURNET...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...LEE...AND BASTROP COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING EAST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS MOVED
EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DEW-POINT
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS DRY CONDITION HAS RESULTED IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE HILL COUNTRY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH LAST NIGHTS SOLUTION OF MOVING
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS BOUNDARY DRIVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THIS FEATURE WILL GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COOL DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AIRMASS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GULF FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON....WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE WITH MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

13/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
734 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-061100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
734 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
BUCHANAN TO AUSTIN TO BASTROP TO GIDDINGS. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ELSEWHERE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER NEW MEXICO. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.