Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, June 27 to 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT MOIST SOUTH/SELY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MIDSTATE. AT UPPER LEVELS AN H5 LOW LOCATED OVER EXTREME
NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO PULL NWD AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH
OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES NEWD.

MODELS ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT H5 WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON THU AND FRI. THE WNW FLOW ALOFT TRIES TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON FRI AM. THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO GENERATE SEVERAL
PRECIP BULLSEYES OVER ALABAMA AND ARKANSAS ON FRI NIGHT. THIS IS
APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE RATHER CHAOTIC H5 VORT PATTERN THAT IT
IS GENERATING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SORT
OF SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TEX INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.

SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA INDICATING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES.

MOS TEMPS AND POPS LOOK REASONABLE. ETA MOS WAS THE WETTEST WITH
POP VALUES RANGING FROM 49 TO 71 PCT OVER THE AREA. UNSURE WHY THE
ETA POPS ARE MUCH HIGHER FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. INSPECTION OF
TYPICAL MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WAS UNREVEALING. WENT A BIT
HIGHER FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT DID NOT BUY
THE LIKELY ETA POPS FOR THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    70  88  70  91 /  30  50  30  30
CLARKSVILLE  71  88  71  91 /  30  40  30  30
CROSSVILLE   66  81  65  82 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

TNZ011-032>034-066-272000-
CUMBERLAND-FENTRESS-OVERTON-PICKETT-PUTNAM-
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND...EASTERN PUTNAM...OVERTON...PICKETT AND FENTRESS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH...AROUND 15 MPH.

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
431 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-272215-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
431 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

LOOK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 15
MPH THROUGH MAURY...LEWIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ALSO...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BENTON...HUMPHREYS AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN NUMBER IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

BBOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
447 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

TNZ027-059-272230-
DAVIDSON-WILLIAMSON-
447 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED IN FAR NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
AT 450 PM CDT...JUST SOUTH OF RIDGETOP. THE STORM SHOWED LITTLE
MOVEMENT. LOOK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

A BAND OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEADING NORTH
THROUGH WILLIAMSON COUNTY AT 450 PM CDT. THE BAND OF STORMS SHOULD
REACH SOUTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY AROUND 510 PM CDT AND MOVE NORTH INTO
THE DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE AREA AROUND 525 PM CDT. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT STRETCHES ALONG INTERSTATE 65...WITH
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

BOYD