Flash Flood and Hail in Tennessee, April 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY WEATHER DAY ACRS THE MID SOUTH. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS LEFT 1 TO
2 INCHES ACRS MUCH OF W TN AND N MS THIS MORNING. ROUND NUMBER 2 IS
WELL UNDER WELL ATTM. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO WRN AR. OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES IN AN ARC
FROM NRN AR TOWARD CLARKSDALE. THIS FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH. GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH WINDS BACKED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE FRONT CREATING LARGE VALUES
OF HELICITY INVOF FRONT. MEANWHILE DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING INTO ERN AR
WITH SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AT SGT. AIRMASS WILL CONT
TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTN.
STORMS WILL CONT TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM NW MS
INTO ERN AR THIS AFTN. THESE STORMS WL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE HAIL THOUGH WITH THE ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG THE FRONT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM BASICALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DYERSBURG TO SAVANNAH LINE.

HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA EAST OF THE MS RIVER TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EARLIER TODAY COMBINED WITH RADAR
TRENDS AND UPPER LOW TRACK PLACE WEST TN AND NRN MS IN POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN AREA. BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN PROBABLY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WL CARRY WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SINCE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

UPPER LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE MS RIVER BY 12Z THU MOVING ACRS
NRN MS DURING THE DAY. WL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS ACRS THE AREA.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WL BE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE
DEFORMATION AREA ACRS NE AR...MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN. THUNDER CHANCES
HIGHEST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING AS THE
LOW TRACKS EAST.

UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NRN GA THU NIGHT AND PRECIP WL TAPER OFF. RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE AREA FRI THROUGH SUN WITH MILD TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUN NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN MS UNTIL 600 AM.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST TN UNTIL 600 AM.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 AM CDT WED APR 6 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1135 AM CDT WED APR 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE BEFORE 4 PM WITH PENNY
SIZE HAIL.

DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA. MEANWHILE COLD AIR ALOFT WL MOVE INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
DAY. THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 4 PM
TO 10 PM. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS THROUGH MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.
THE THREAT IN THIS AREA INCLUDES LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SJM