Flash Flood and Hail in South Dakota, July 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...AT 18Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC TROF ACRS ERN WY/MT WITH
SRLY FLOW ACRS REGION. MID-LVL S/W MVG INTO NWRN CAMPBELL COUNTY
FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACRS NE WY DURING NEXT SEVERAL HRS. AS
THIS WAVE MVS SE MID-LVL LIFT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACRS NE AND
FAR WRN BLACK HILLS AFT 20Z. TDS IN 50S AND GOOD THETA-E ADV...WL
LIKELY SEE SCT TSTMS DVLP OVR NE WY AND IN BLK HLS. SHEAR SUGGESTS
STORMS WL HAVE TO MV EAST OF HILLS FOR THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...BUT
WL NOT RULE OUT CHC OF AN ISOLD SVR TSTM OR TWO ACRS NE WY/BLK
HLS...ESP IN THE HILLS.

ACTIVITY ACRS NE WY/FAR WRN SD SHLD DIE DOWN DURING EVENING HRS...
BUT LOW-LVL JET AND THETA-E ADV INC ON PLAINS ACRS CENT/S-CENT SD
AFT 06Z...THUS WL CONT CHC POPS ON CENTRAL PLAINS AFT 06Z.

ON THURS...MUCH THE SAME SCENERIO AS TODAY...WITH MID-LVL S/W AND
GOOD OMEGA DVLPING ACRS NE WY AND BLK HLS. WL CONT WITH CHC TSTMS
OVR THESE AREAS AFT 18Z THUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHLD DIE DOWN IN EARLY
EVENING HRS.

FRI/SAT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE WX WITH DRIER CONDS AND TEMPS
WELL ABV NORMAL...WARMER PLACES ON PLAINS WILL PUSH 100F...IF NOT
GETTING A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WL CONT SLGT CHC TSTMS ACRS HILLS BOTH
DAYS AS WEAK MID-LVL S/WS FCST TO MV ACRS HILLS BOTH DAYS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH BRINGING MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE THE AREA
HAS FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ALL TWEB ROUTES.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 03-04Z.

&&

.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE
WY...NONE

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1040 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2005

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-061900-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1040 AM MDT (1140 AM CDT) TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILL AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR
A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE AREA CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.