Lightning Strike in South Carolina, May 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATED WWA SECTION FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE SOUTHERN NC MTNS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 339 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE CONSIDERATION OF A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN THE SOUTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR
CROSSVILLE TN COULD CREATE HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM HAYWOOD COUNTY
SOUTH EARLY TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
12Z THIS MORNING...WITH 500 MB SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE 12 TO
18Z. LEADING EDGE OF MCS CURRENTLY IS CATCHING UP TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS AHEAD OF THE QUASI LINEAR FEATURE.
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL THUS CONTINUE IN THE
WATCH AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY PULL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL TRANSIT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EXIT THE COAST NEAR THE DELMARVA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL THEN FINALLY
PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING AND DRYING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVING AS UPPER LOWS COMBINE INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY
LESS INSTABILITY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CONSENSUS REMAINS ON MEAN EASTERN TROUGHING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
WILL START TAFS WITH TEMPO FOR CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES...NOW LEAVING OR ENTERING AREA...TIMING FIRST BAND AS IT
MOVES OUT OF KCLT AND KAND...AND SECOND BAND AS IT MOVES INTO KAVL
AND KGSP. MODELS HAVE BULK OF OMEGA OVERNIGHT...WITH MESOETA
DECREASING IT AROUND 09Z. BASED ON SPEED OF CONVECTION IN E
TN...WILL CARRY THUNDER THROUGH 09Z...AND JUST TEMPO SHOWERS TOWARD
DAWN. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AND
VSBY EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION ADDS MOISTURE TO ALREADY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL ALLOW MVFR VSBY AND CIGS TO LIFT MID MORNING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES. WITH LIMITED LIFT BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVES...WILL DELAY
ONSET OF DAYTIME CONVECTION TIL AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED HEATING
THROUGH LOW VFR CIGS BOOSTS ALREADY ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT
FROPA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THOUGH FORCING WEAK...WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY FRONT S
ACROSS TAF SITES. WIND VEERS TO NNE BEHIND FROPA LATE EVENING...WITH
LOW VFR CIGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 UNTIL NOON
     FRIDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

GAZ017-018-026-028-200430-
FRANKLIN GA-HABERSHAM-HART-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKESVILLE...HARTWELL...TOCCOA
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SHOULD
PASS SOUTH OF CORNELIA TO NEAR TOCCOA AND CARNESVILLE.  THE
STRONGEST STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH...PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW
AREAS.

BENTHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     HAIL             REED CREEK              34.44N 82.92W
05/20/2005  1.00 INCH        HART               GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS 5 MILES NORTH OF HARTWELL IN
            REED CREEK COMMUNITY.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 AM     HAIL             8 N SHELBY              35.40N 81.54W
05/20/2005  0.88 INCH        CLEVELAND          NC   UNKNOWN

            PUBLIC REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL 8 MILES NORTH OF SHELBY
            ON HWY 226.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     AVALON                  34.50N 83.19W
05/20/2005                   STEPHENS           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN AVALON AREA, ONE ON MARTIN DRIVE.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE HENDERSONVILLE    35.42N 82.34W
05/20/2005                   HENDERSON          NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 64 IN EDNEYVILLE

0338 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ETOWAH                  35.32N 82.60W
05/20/2005                   HENDERSON          NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 64 IN ETOWAH.

&&

TJB