Flood in Puerto Rico, June 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN JUN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...12Z SOUNDING MEASURED 2.15 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
ALONG WITH K AND LIFTED INDEXES OF 36 AND -6.0 RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AND
HUMID AS TIME PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
YESTERDAY ALONG 60 WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THE HIGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EXISTENT CAN MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST GOOD OMEGA VALUES OVER PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH TIME UNTIL MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...GOOD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AND AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAY
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ESPECIALLY THE EAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
ARE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING FROM THE EXPECTED RAINS. THESE
SECTIONS HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL LAS FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL RAPIDLY RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE
OF SAN JUAN AND VICINITY METRO AREA. URBAN AREAS AND NEIGHBORHOODS
ALONG SMALL STREAMS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS FOR SUDDEN RISES IN THE
STREAMS LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE USUAL DRIER MONTH OF JUNE AS COMPARED WITH APRIL..MAY
AND JULY HAVE BEEN SO FAR WETTER THAN NORMAL IN GENERAL. GROUND
WATER RESERVES ARE FULL...THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN MANY
AREAS...AND THE EVAPORATION RESULTING FROM SUN HEATING HAVE BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA DURING LAST FEW
DAYS. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD SOME WEIGHT TO FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  76  92 /  50  60  20  30
STT  80  87  79  88 /  70  60  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

RIVERA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-131000-
600 AM AST SUN JUN 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH MOVING WESTWARD
AND A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ONSHORE BEFORE
SUNRISE MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS IS
ONLY THE BEGINNING. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN DOMAIN OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT NORMAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACTIVITY DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. NO SIGN OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS IS IN THE FORECAST.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-131000-
600 AM AST SUN JUN 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH MOVING WESTWARD
AND A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ALREADY
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
EXPECT A DRIER AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IF POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT NO SIGN OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.