Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, August 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WAS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO AGAIN
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE OR
AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL STILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL
MUNICIPALITIES AGAIN...AND GIVEN ANTECEDENT GROUND AND RIVER
CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY SLOW CELL MOTION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
AGAIN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WELL-DEFINED...1010 MB SURFACE
LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...WAS CENTERED NEAR
17.5 NORTH 59 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 12 MPH. PER TPC/NHC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ITS CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TO A POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS MENTIONED ON WEDNESDAY...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MAIN EFFECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...AS THE CONVERGENT INFLOW BAND OR SO CALLED
TAIL OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALIGNED NEAR OR
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THUS...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  50  50  50  50
STT  90  80  89  80 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-191030-
600 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR TODAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAND
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE RISK OF LOCAL
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THE TAIL OF THE REMNANT
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WILL CAUSE SOME
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ720>730-191030-
600 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR TODAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAND
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLATED LOCAL FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND GUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED LOCAL FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND GUTS.
THE TAIL OF THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10...WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WILL CAUSE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.