Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, July 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, LIFTING EAST NORTHEAST.
WE HAVE MASSAGED THE ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN AS RADAR AND LATEST
OMEGA FIELDS SUGGESTING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ONLY SHOULD HAVE CHANCE
POPS NOW, WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE RAIN ENDING AROUND NOON, AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE IT END IN THE MID AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS LONG AS RAIN IS STILL
OCCURRING, AND LIKELY WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE WATCH DOWN IN STAGES,
BUT GIVEN PRESENT RIVER STAGES AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IT
LOOKS LIKE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MAJOR CONCERN AND THAT MOST
STREAMS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFUL. NOT READY TO SAY ALL WILL REMAIN
WITHIN BANKFUL YET. SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE SOUTH AS IT
LOOKS ON SAT PIX THAT THEY MAY BREAK OUT. ALSO TOOK OUT THE
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES AS THINK WERE CLOSE ENOUGH NOW TO THE END
TO BE MORE DIFINITIVE.

DID PUT UP A SCA FOR THE UPPER BAY EARLIER BASED ON OBSERVED WINDS.
PREV AFD IS BELOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY
     PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH TODAY
     NJZ001-007>010-012>020-027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH TODAY
     DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH TODAY
     MDZ008-012-015-019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

MPD

*******************************************************************

.PUBLIC...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEAST
AND MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER TODAY. ALOFT, A S/W WAS
PIVOTING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WEAKER S/W IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.

PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH THE LATEST PACKAGE. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN PRESERVED FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE AND REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WERE IN-HOUSE DISCUSSIONS TO TAPER THE END OF
THE WATCH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY, BUT THOUGHT THAT THIS WOULD
EITHER HAND CUFF THE DAY SHIFT AND/OR MAKE A LOGISTIC MESS IF THINGS
DIDNT GO AS PLANNED. WITH THAT SAID, ITS OUR BELIEF THAT THE WORST
SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY.

THE H7 FRONTOGENESIS OR OMEGA FIELDS, EITHER ON THE NAM OR GFS,
SEEMED TO MATCH UP BEST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. ACTUALLY,
THE NAM SEEMED A LITTLE BETTER, A MUCH DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM 24
HOURS AGO. THIS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. THAT IS,
THE BEST QPF WOULD FALL ACROSS OUR PA AND NORTHERN NJ ZONES.

THE SAME OMEGA FIELDS ALSO SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WELL AND WAS USED FOR TIMING. WE SPED THINGS UP
A LITTLE TAPERING THINGS OFF TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING, BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES, AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE SECOND S/W PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, THE SHOWER THREAT WAS CONTINUED INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD.

INSTABILITY EITHER AT THE SURFACE OR AT ELEVATED LEVELS IS
LIMITED(BEST VALUES ALONG THE COAST). WE BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND JUST WENT ISOLATED. THE HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE
COAST CAN BE CONTRIBUTED TO THE STORMS AND WARM SECTORS EXPECTED
TRACK.

WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY TOMORROW AND S/WS
STILL ROTATING AROUND IT, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS LEFT IN TACT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

AN UPDATED FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. AN SPS HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF CINDY ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STEADY
RAINS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE AS BROUGHT THE CENTER ACROSS SRN NJ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO NORTH
THEN NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. I LEFT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR THE MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF RA+ AND SOME LIFR CONDITIONS. THE END-GAME FOR THE
HEAVY PRECIP AND IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS STILL NOT CERTAIN ATTM SO
PLAYED A SLOWLY IMPROVING APPROACH FOR THE AFTERNOON ON THE 06Z
TAFS. SATELLITE SHOWING DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND LOW CENTER OVER VA
AND ITS CRUISING NE TOWARDS DELMARVA...SO THE 12Z TAFS WILL PROBABLY
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP AND POOREST
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ALONG THE NJ AND DE SHORES EXPECTED TODAY UNTIL
CENTER OF FORMER-CINDY PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS VEERING ACROSS 44009 FROM ESE TO SSW BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT 44025 WINDS REMAIN E OR ENE MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN BACK AROUND TO NW AS THE LOW PASSES BY EARLY TONIGHT. OUR
COASTAL WATERS IN REGION OF VEERING WINDS TODAY. I INTEND ON RAISING
A SCA FOR THE LOWER DE BAY WITH THE 4AM ISSUANCE. THIS IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT AS THE CENTER APPROACHES A BRISK SE FLOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE WATERS. BRANDYWINE ALREADY SHOWING SUSTAINED 17 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 22 KTS. THE WATERS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY FOR AWHILE AFTER WINDS
SHIFT LATER TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/RIP CURRENTS...
SEA CONDITIONS BUILDING ATTM WITH THE FRESHENING EAST FLOW TURNING
SOUTHEAST AS CENTER APPROACHES. LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES A MODERATE
THREAT OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS ACROSS BOTH NJ AND DE BEACHES TODAY.

TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL RUN A BIT HIGH AS SYSTEM PASSES BY TODAY. THE
TIDES THIS EVENING ALONG THE SHORE ARE AROUND 830 PM. THIS IS THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO TIDES DURING THE DAILY CYCLE...BUT BY THE TIME THE
LOW WILL ALREADY BE OFF THE COAST. WE WILL NOT ISSUES A STATEMENT
REGARDING ANY TIDAL FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

PUBLIC...KRUZDLO
AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...PO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-
012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-091100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
629 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NEW
JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO OUR FLOOD WATCH
STATEMENT, PHLFFAPHI(WGUS61 KPHI).

FOR THE BEACHES OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, THERE IS A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST, PHLSRFPHI
(FZUS51 KPHI), FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

 NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION REPORTS
WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

KRUZDLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1145 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

NJZ020-022>026-081700-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-OCEAN NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY
1145 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...

A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE.  WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THESE STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND ALONG
ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CARE AND NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOU LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES.

AMC