Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, June 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS...WITH GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTION OF THE TSA FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN SUFFICIENT.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE REGION AND SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER
MONDAY SO POPS MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

NOTE: FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AT THE LAST MINUTE THIS
MORNING AS THE CURRENT MCS EVOLVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  73  90  72 /  40  20  20  20
FSM   92  70  91  71 /  30  20  20  20
MLC   91  72  90  73 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   90  71  90  71 /  60  20  20  20
FYV   83  67  85  69 /  40  20  20  20
BYV   87  68  87  68 /  50  20  20  20
MKO   88  71  89  70 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   90  71  91  70 /  60  20  20  20
F10   88  72  89  72 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   91  72  92  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 5
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
512 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH TO EUFAULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY HAVE DISSIPATED
ENTIRELY BY NOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH STORMS THIS MORNING.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE RED RIVER BY LATE MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AND ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MILES AN HOUR AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED BY LATE
AFTERNOON SO IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TO OUR WEST ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SIGNIFCANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

OKZ060-064-091300-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
727 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA AND CREEK

AT 727 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANNFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MANNFORD AND SAND
SPRINGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.