Hail in Ohio, July 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

06Z GFS DISPLACES BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER EAST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
SATURDAY THEN RETROGRADES IT EASTWARD SUNDAY.  PLAYED HIGHEST POPS
SUNDAY IN THE CNTRL AND SRN MTNS WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LKLY...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT TO DRY IN THE ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES.  FRONT THEN
MOVES EAST BY NEXT WEEK AS TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR MORE DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP.

CONT WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN GUID ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER
PER A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FCST...WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE
MTNS WHERE CLOUDS AND RW WILL BE AROUND.  ALSO JACKED UP LOWS IN THE
EKN VCNTY AS SKY CVR WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TEMPS IN THE MID AND
UPR 50S.  NUMBERS RETURN TO SEASONAL BENCHMARKS BY DAY 5 AND CONT
THRU DAY7.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1048 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

TRIED TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN GRAPHICS TO DEPICT FALLING
TEMPS IN SE OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AN EARLY MAX IN WESTERN
WV.

SEE PKB HAVING NW WIND...BUT THINK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL NW OF PKB
AT 15Z.  HAVE FRONT SINKING SE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. 30 KNOT FLOW AT 3
THSD FT RESULTING IN GOOD BREEZE IN THE MUGGY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE FORMING RAPIDLY AT MIDDAY.

DESPITE TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY AND CAPE REACHING 3000 AHEAD OF
FRONT...NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
CWA...CONVERGENCE IS MINIMAL. THINKING MORE TO OUR EAST.

WILL BE TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE
TONIGHT...BUT THATS FOR ANOTHER SECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 617 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005)

AVIATION...

STRONG COLD FRONT AT 10Z FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO BY LATE MORNING WITH HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THE
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERAL MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS...TENDING TO DIMINISH WEST OF PKB-HTS LINE
BY 02Z...CKB-CRW LINE BY 04Z...AND EKN-BKW LINE BY 08Z TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 231 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005)

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN STALLING OUT...HOWEVER THE BIG
DIFFERENCE REMAINS THAT THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT AND LIFTS IT UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY.  HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION AND THEREFORE NOT PLAYING AS
HIGH POPS AS MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...BUT DO HEDGE A
LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  THE KEY WILL BE WHERE DOES A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP AND ALLOW WAVES TO RIDE UP THE FRONT.  AT
THIS POINT...THINK THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY AND HAVE TONED DOWN THE LIKELY POPS I
INHERITED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO KEEP HIGH
CHANCE GOING IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-280845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
434 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEAST OHIO...VIRGINIA...OH AND KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1219 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

WVZ019-020-271700-
DODDRIDGE-RITCHIE-
1219 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 1219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF HARRISVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE AVON...
  SMITHBURG...GREENWOOD...BLANDVILLE...GROVE AND WEST UNION.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WILL ALSO OCCUR.

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

WVZ006-013>015-271730-
CABELL-KANAWHA-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HURRICANE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BARBOURSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE WEST
  HAMLIN...TORNADO...ST. ALBANS...SOUTH CHARLESTON...SISSONVILLE AND
  POCA.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A QUICK HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY ALSO BE
SEEN.

10