Damaging Wind in North Dakota, June 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. CAPES WILL BE RISING THIS AFTERNOON AND A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IN
THE FAR WEST BEFORE SUNSET.  NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.  THE ETA AND
GFS MODELS SHOW MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AND THE MOST QPF JUST NORTH OF A
SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL ND. SHORT WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH A LINGERING
SURFACE LOW TO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEN A
PERSISTENT  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PACKAGE AS INHERITED FORECAST LOOKING GOOD. LATEST GFS80
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER MT ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FALLS UNDER VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND FROM 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING...

&&

LM/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
434 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-070933-
ADAMS-BILLINGS-BOTTINEAU-BOWMAN-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-DIVIDE-DUNN-
EMMONS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-GRANT-HETTINGER-KIDDER-LA MOURE-LOGAN-
MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-
PIERCE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-SLOPE-STARK-STUTSMAN-WARD-
WELLS-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...
DICKINSON...CROSBY...BOWMAN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...MANDAN...
WATFORD CITY...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...MOTT...MEDORA...LINTON...
HETTINGER...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT...
BEACH AND ASHLEY
434 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1210 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-070524-
ADAMS-BILLINGS-BOWMAN-BURKE-DIVIDE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-HETTINGER-
MCKENZIE-MOUNTRAIL-SLOPE-STARK-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...DICKINSON...CROSBY...BOWMAN...
WATFORD CITY...STANLEY...MOTT...MEDORA...HETTINGER AND BEACH
1210 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS ENDED...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 46.77N 100.70W
06/07/2005                   BURLEIGH           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BURLEIGH COUNTY DEPUTY REPORTS ROOF BLOWN OFF OF TRAILER
            HOME ESTIMATED WINDS 60 MPH +

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     15 WNW MANDAN           46.91N 101.18W
06/07/2005                   MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

            PARKED 24 FOOT PULL TYPE CAMPER SPUN AROUND IN 60 MPH +
            WINDS

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             BISMARCK                46.81N 100.77W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC AT CENTURY PARK IN
            NORTHEAST BISMARCK

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 46.77N 100.70W
06/07/2005                   BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED OF IN LICOLN
            MEADOWS TRAILER PARK. WINDS 60 MPH +

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     HAIL             LANSFORD                48.63N 101.38W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        BOTTINEAU          ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NWS COOP OBSERVER REPORTS PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

VROLLER