Damaging Wind in North Carolina, November 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

COLD FRONT ABOUT ONE THIRD OF THE WAY INTO RNK FCST AREA AS OF 2:30
PM...PUSHING THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SOON TO REACH THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES FRONT IN EASTERN EXTREME OF FCST AREA
BY 6PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS A STILL A SLIGHT THREAT OF A
STRONG DOWNBURST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS WELL AS CONTINUED MINOR
FLOODING...EXPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EARLIER TODAY RECEIVED OVER
3 OR 4 INCHES OF RAIN.  BY THIS EVENING...AND START OF THIS FCST
PACKAGE...FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA...AND THUS AM NOT EXTENDING FLOOD WATCH INTO THIS EVENING.

BEHIND FRONT...WINDS SHIFT SW AND DRY SLOT SHOULD ACTUALLY BRING A
PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE FLOW
TURNS MORE WRLY AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FILLS CLOUDS BACK IN ACROSS
TRADITIONAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR WEST. MSTR NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND WILL KEEP ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC FAR WRN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO CHNG ANY RAIN
SHOWERS IN WRN GREENBRIER TO SNOW SHWRS...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUM.

LAST S/WV LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA WED
MORNING...TAKING ANY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH IT...AND AT THAT POINT SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF UPSLOPE AREAS AND COLD AIR ADV WILL DIMINISH.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE BUT IF ANY WARM AIR ADV BEGINS LATE IN
THE DAY IN WEST HIGHS COULD BE ABV MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

BY TOMORROW NIGHT EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXIT THE REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA. LOOKING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA TO EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN TREND COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT TEXAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND SPREAD A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE PREFERRED HPC
SOLUTION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION TIMING...AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ELEMENTS IN THE FAVORED EC MODEL. THIS PAINTS A
PICTURE OF A POSSIBLE P-TYPE CONCERN. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS REGION...THIS IS
CONCURRENT TO WHERE EC SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AROUND +2 TO +4 C.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR COMPLETE MELTING OF ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT AS THE FALL THROUGH THIS LAYER THEN A REFREEZING ON
THE SURFACE.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS RISE NOTABLY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TEXAS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HPC PLACES LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HEADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS
IT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AS A STATIONARY FRONT. EC MODEL AGAIN A
TRICKY P-TYPE CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN THE 850 MB COLD FRONT. THIS SETS UP THE
SITUATION OF A WARM NOSE ABOVE A FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. EC
SOLUTION PLACES THE 0 TO +1C ISOTHERMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MELTING...BUT PERHAPS
NOT A COMPLETE MELT IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLEET
IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS ON
MONDAY...SO A SWITCH BACK TO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCALES.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT IS NO MORE...BUT
WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH BLF. THUNDER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR BLF AND LWB...AND
WILL BY EARLY AFTNOON AT ROA...THEN BY 22Z OR SO AT LYH AND DAN. IN
THE MEANTIME...SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE VERY GUSTY
WINDS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN TAFS UNLESS A STORM
HEADS RIGHT OVER THEM. WINDS TO SHIFT SW AND WEST THIS EVEN UNDER
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY SLOT...THEN SOME IFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY COME
IN TO BLF AND LWB FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE...BEFORE CLEARING BACK OUT AGAIN DURING THE MORNING WED. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY UPSLOPE PRECIP AT WEST VIRGINIA TAF
SITES...AND GRADIENT

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

SK/DS/SK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

VAZ044-058-292000-
HALIFAX-PITTSYLVANIA-
214 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HALIFAX AND PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT NORTH OF
DANVILLE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 29...INCLUDING CHATHAM
AND CHALK LEVEL. LOCATIONS SUCH AS CODY CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS BY 300 PM. IF TRAVELING BE ALERT TO POOR
VISIBILITIES AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. SLOW DOWN...OR PULL SAFELY OFF
THE ROAD UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

05