Flash Flood in North Carolina, November 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MOST OF THE CONCERNS WITH THE SHORT TERM ARE IMMEDIATE. KGSP RADAR
SHOWS DISORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WORKING SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT ANALYZED AT 06Z ENTERING WESTERN NC.  THERE
REMAINS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WHERE HIGH WINDS WOULD BE BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE ARE THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.  RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 11Z.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

CATEGORICAL POP LOOKS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...EVEN WITH THE EVIDENCE THAT FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS/ZFP WILL REFLECT
MARCHING THE CONVECTIVE BAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED
WITH LATER UPDATES. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE/RADAR SUGGESTS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH I-77 AT 19Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH
THAT IN MIND...A LOW CHANCE POP WILL BE KEPT JUST IN THE VERY
EASTERN ZONES FOR THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 01Z OR SO.

THE NON-DIURNAL NATURE OF THE TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY THIS MORNING
MEANS THAT OUR HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY IS PROBLEMATIC. SHORT TERM
TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL PROBABLY DICTATE THE MAX TEMP IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST. WHAT IS UNCLEAR IS IF TEMPS CAN REBOUND
IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN LOCATIONS SINCE COOL AIR DOES NOT REALLY
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

THE FORECAST GETS RELATIVELY BENIGN LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY WILL PREVENT A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HAVE GENERALLY NUDGED TEMP FORECAST TOWARD
NEW GUIDANCE.

THE ONLY OTHER SHORT RANGE ISSUE IS THE UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY. THIS ONE WILL LACK
DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL NW FLOW POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY/OVERNIGHT.
FOR THAT REASON...A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG THE TN
BORDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE NO BIG DEAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION
FROM NW ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING AREA SAT. LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. COULD BE SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING SETTING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE PLAYED ALONG WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY. HAVE CHC POP SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWFA
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. IF THE DAMMING SCENARIO IS MORE
CORRECT...COULD BE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS AT PRECIP ONSET. POP
DECREASES TO SLIGHT CHC AND ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT XCPT FOR NC MTNS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW MOVES IN BY EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS NOT VERY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CHC POP
NC MTNS MONDAY...BUT ONLY MENTIONING SNOW FOR THE MORNING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRI/SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL MIN/BELOW NORMAL MAX
SUNDAY WITH PRECIP. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAD ERODING AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
DOMINATING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. VIS AND CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AHEAD OF FRONTAL CONVECTION. PLAN TO KEEP TERMINALS MVFR
AHEAD AND DURING FROPA...EXCEPT IN TEMPO AT KAVL WHERE LOW DECK JUST
ABOVE 1 K FT AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 15-19Z TUE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY BECOME VFR
AFTER FROPA TUE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING SW TO W.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ONE OF THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS TAF
PACKAGE. LINEAR CONVECTION ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
WILL TIME SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND TUE AM.
WILL BASE DECISIONS ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NAM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-291115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
601 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
TAYLORSVILLE TO HICKORY...SHELBY...GAFFNEY...AND CHESTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 344 AM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
MORGANTON...FOREST CITY...LAURENS...AND GREENWOOD LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS REGION HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 536 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1119 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-290630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1119 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005

...WINDY WEATHER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...

LATE THIS EVENING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF STORMS HAD WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN ALABAMA...SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE LINE REMAINED VERY STRONG.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THREATS OVERNIGHT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. FIRST...STRONG STORMS IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE. THAT MEANS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
MIX DOWN DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...AND IT POSSIBLE WIND
DAMAGE COULD OCCUR FROM HABERSHAM AND RABUN COUNTIES NORTH INTO
THE FRANKLIN...SYLVA...BRYSON CITY...AND OTHER COMMUNITIES IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

SECOND...THE ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...DATA INDICATE THE LOWEST
PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...YOU
SHOULD ENSURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS RECEIVER IS
PROPERLY SET IN THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED. ALSO...MAKE A QUICK
CHECK OF YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN...TO ENSURE EVERYONE IN
THE FAMILY UNDERSTANDS ACTIONS TO TAKE IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

JONES