Damaging Wind in North Carolina, March 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROF WL RAPIDLY CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESSURES ARE FALLING FAST IN THE LEE
ATTM...WITH 6 MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS AT MANY ASOS SITES. BY 0900 UTC
THE ETA IS PROGGING PRESSURES IN THE LEE TO FALL TO 991 MB. A SURFACE
FRONT THIS DEEP WL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LLVL CONVERGENCE...AND A
LOW TOPPED LINE OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. FORTUNATELY THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS SHIFT EAST
AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL DAMAGING
WIND GUTS. NONE OF THIS IS REALLY A FIRST PERIOD CONCERN AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 6 OR 7 AM. STILL IT WL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH THE REMINDER OF THIS SHIFT.

FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WINDS AND SNOW THREAT.
PRESSURE RISES WL BE SUBSTANTIVE OVER MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH 1800
UTC. IN THE NRN MTNS TIME SECTIONS SHOW WINDS OF AROUND 50 KTS WELL
WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER. RNK IS PLANNING TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THEIR NC NRN MTN COUNTIES AND I WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
MINE. WL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NC MTNS AND
THE WRN NC FOOTHILLS. A LITTLE WORRIED THAT DAMAGING WINDS COULD
ALSO AFFECT THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO
ISSUE A WARNING RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FARTHER EAST...MOST OF THE PIEDMONT HAS WINDS OF AROUND 35 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TDA. WITH STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE
RISES...THINK THAT THESE WINDS WL MIX DOWN AT TIMES AND WL INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALL COUNTIES THAT DON/T HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING OR
ADVISORY TDA.

STILL A TOUGH CALL ON SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY 10 DEG C
TEMPERATURE FALL BETWEEN 0900-1200 UTC OVER THE WRN MTNS. MOST
LOCATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FEET SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. SNOW WL PROBABLY BE RATHER HEAVY ON THE BACK END OF THE
FRONTAL BAND...BUT I DON/T THINK HEAVY SNOW WL LAST FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST. CONSIDERING HOW WARM THE GROUND IS AND THAT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WON/T CHANGE OVER UNTIL MOST OF THE FRONTAL BAND
PCPN IS THROUGH...DO NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST ON
GRASSY SURFACES. THEREAFTER...THE NW FLOW IS FAIR...BUT NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES DO FALL TO NEARLY -10 DEG C AT H8...AND
WINDS ARE STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT HGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH
AND LAYER RH VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ALL TOLD...PERHAPS ANOTHER 1
TO 2 INCHES. SO...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF WINTER STORM
CRITERIA IN PARTS OF THE NRN MTNS...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A WARNING. WL CARRY 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS NRN MTNS AND LESS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MATCHES QUITE WELL WITH RNK AND MRX WHO ARE
ALSO ISSUING ADVISORIES.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WED AND WED
NGHT. LAYER RH VALUES ARE LOOKING A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THE
EVENT...AND THINK THAT THE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO CHNAGES MADE BEYOND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN TO PERSIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...HOLDING
VSBY TO MVFR SC SITES AND KCLT. KAVL TO BE N OF MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
WITH BETTER VSBY...BUT WITH LOWER MVFR CIGS PERSISTING. EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL GA WANING AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
STABLE AIR. WILL LIMIT MENTION OF THUNDER TO KAND. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
WIND SPEED SHEAR AROUND...ANY VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WIND
TO SURFACE...AND HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GUSTS WITH HEAVIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FROPA EXPECTED JUST BEFORE DAWN. MOISTURE ALONG ACTUAL
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS AS FLOW VEERS
BEHIND FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS PARTAILLY INTERCEPT
FLOW. EXPECT WIND TO GET QUITE GUSTY TODAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...
COLD ADVECTION BEGINS AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION TAKES OVER. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALMOST AS WINDY LEE OF MOUNTAINS AS AT KAVL...AND HAVE
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION ...RESERVING A TEMPO FOR EVEN HIGHER GUSTS
AT KAVL. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY...THOUGH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN TO LINGER IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINSH.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 FROM 6 AM
     TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
     TUESDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058 FROM 6 AM
     TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-048-051>055-058-059-062>067 FROM 6 AM
     TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082 FROM 6
     AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6
     PM TUESDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...BURRUS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-091058-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
558 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO TENNESSEE. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS AND TO REPORT ON WIND
DAMAGE TODAY.