Flash Flooding and Hail in North Carolina, June 7, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ROUGHLY IN THE ZONE OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS OF THIS TIME CELLS ARE GENERALLY
DEVELOPING AND DYING AFTER CREATING MORE CONVECTION ON THE
THUNDERSTORM GUST FRONTS. ANY PERSISTENT CELL COULD BECOME A FLOOD
THREAT.

PERSISTENCE WILL LARGELY BE THE FORECAST TREND BUT WITH A MINOR
COOLING TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGHS. GFS 850 MILLBAR WINDS MORE SOUTH
THAN THE ETA/NAM AND THIS PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AIR COLUMN
AND HELPS TO BUMP THE GFS FORECAST POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO ACT AS A TRIGGER OTHER
THAN AFTERNOON HEATING AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. LOSS
OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO A FACTOR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH WEAK SOUTH
FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK... ENOUGH TIME WILL PASS TO ADVECT IN COOLER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INITIATE A WEAK COOLING TREND IN HIGHS.
HAZE AND INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO AID THE COOLING
TREND. LOWS SHOULD NOT STRAY FAR FROM 70 DEGREES.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED THIS PERIOD AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE
DIURNAL POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE 85 TO 90
WITH LOWS 65 TO 70.

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION AND FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS MORNING. THESE WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT ALL SITES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH IFR VIS AND LIFR CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI.
THIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THE MORNING...BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
GSO AND INT SHOULD AGAIN HAVE MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...DGS
AVIATION...DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
615 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
615 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
FROM NEARLY STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR LIFTS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

NCZ039-071930-
RANDOLPH-
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...HEAVY RAIN OVER ASHEBORO THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING OVER ASHEBORO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...NEAR
MARTHA.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CITY OF AHSEBORO. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
SOME ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED.

DGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

NCZ010-011-072000-
HALIFAX-WARREN-
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN AND HALIFAX COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MACON...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ALONG HIGHWAY 158 BETWEEN NORLINA AND ROANOKE RAPIDS.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...VAUGHAN...
LITTLETON...AND...GROVE HILL...AIRLIE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

JO