Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SCT SH/TS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE OF THE MTNS WITH ISO
CONVECTION EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE U80S TO AROUND 90
WITH DWPTS IN THE MID TO U60S. LAPS INDICATES THAT EAST OF THE MTNS
CAPES HAVE POOLED TO 3K J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT WITH 0-6 KM
STM MTN REMAINING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
THAT THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
WITH THE PIEDMONT BECOMING SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
SH OR TS THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. PW/S SHOULD REMAIN >1.5 WITH K-INDEX
>40 THIS EVENING...STATIONARY STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ISO SVR HAIL AND
WIND EVENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE MOISTURE...CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPING LOOK HIGH FOR TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST AREAS OF
DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WITH PATCHY FOG EAST. NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACHING
THE U80S TO L90S AND DWPTS IN THE U60S. IN ADDITION...WEAK H5 S/W
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LEE TROF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL AGAIN ADVERTISE SCT SH/TS WITH GREATEST
FAVORED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WED AND THU WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE
OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW MOS AND FORECAST A GRADUAL LOWERING
OF AFTERNOON MAXES. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF A CHC EACH DAY FOR
SH/TS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
KEEPS A MOIST SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE WEAKENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTING THE FLOW MORE
SWLY. HOWEVER HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES. MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK OROGRAPHICS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS...AFT/EVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY RISE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ATMOS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE RIDGES ATTM.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE RIDGES INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND UPSTATE/NE GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP VCTS ALL SITES AND INCLUDE EARLY TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT KAVL
WHERE CELLS ARE CLOSING IN. VCTS ENDS ABOUT 02Z...THEN FOG BECOMES
THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING MFVR...THEN TEMPO IFR KHKY/KAND. ANY RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE
SITES WILL LIKELY MEAN IFR OR WORSE. THE MAIN CHANGE I MADE TO
PERSISTENCE IS KAVL. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG LAST NITE EVEN IN FRENCH
BROAD. KAVL STARTED TO SOCK IN...THEN LIFTED TO AND REMAINED AT
MVFR. WITH RAIN LIKELY THERE...AND MDLS INDICATING IFR...WENT WITH
PREDOMINANT IFR AND TEMPO LIFR NEAR SUNRISE. ANOTHER FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE OVERNIGHT ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD KCLT. THIS
REMAINED WELL EAST OF KCLT LAST NIGHT...AND MDLS KEEP IT EAST OF
THERE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LIFR
CONDITIONS IF IT MADE IN...BUT MENTIONING IT MAINLY AS A HEADS UP
FOR NOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-072100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
456 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW
THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
MANY OF THE STORMS. PLEASE REFER TO CAESPSGSP...AS WELL AS WARNING
PRODUCTS FOR SHORT TERM INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             5 N MORGANTON           35.81N 81.70W
06/06/2005  0.75 INCH        BURKE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL AT LEAST PENNY SIZE REPORTED BY CHESTERFIELD FIRE
            DEPARTMENT

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                35.25N 82.20W
06/06/2005                   POLK               NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NCZ066>068-SCZ003-006>008-062100-
POLK-RUTHERFORD-CLEVELAND-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY
437 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

AT 435 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SPARTANBURG COUNTY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM. PORTIONS OF COUNTIES NEIGHBORING
SPARTANBURG COUNTY WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS BY 5 PM. SOME OF THESE WINDS
MAY REACH LEVELS THAT WILL TOPPLE TRASH CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE.
AREAS FROM BLUE RIDGE TO TIGERVILLE ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF GREER MAY
SEE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK TREE LIMBS AND REMOVE SHINGLES.
STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO SPREAD ACROSS CHESNEE AND THE BATTLE GROUND
AREA BY 5 PM.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-062200-
ABBEVILLE-CABARRUS-CHESTER-GASTON-GREENWOOD-LAURENS SC-MECKLENBURG-
UNION NC-UNION SC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...CHARLOTTE...CHESTER...
CONCORD...GASTONIA...GREENWOOD...LAURENS...MONROE...ROCK HILL...UNION
441 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

AT 435 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...CREATING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SLOW THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL CREATE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN LOCATIONS FROM ABBEVILLE...TO LAURENS...TO ROCK
HILL AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNING.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE GREER             35.01N 82.20W
06/06/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWERLINES DOWN IN THE HOLLY SPRINGS COMMUNITY. RADAR
            ESTIMATES THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED AROUND 430 PM.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NCZ051-058-062200-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEROKEE
511 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE FONTANA LAKE AREA...

AT 505 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER FONTANA LAKE...JUST EAST OF FONTANA VILLAGE.
THIS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IN AREAS AROUND THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BOATERS
ON FONTANA LAKE SHOULD MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNING.

LANE