Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SCT SH/TS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE OF THE MTNS WITH ISO
CONVECTION EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE U80S TO AROUND 90
WITH DWPTS IN THE MID TO U60S. LAPS INDICATES THAT EAST OF THE MTNS
CAPES HAVE POOLED TO 3K J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT WITH 0-6 KM
STM MTN REMAINING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
THAT THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
WITH THE PIEDMONT BECOMING SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
SH OR TS THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. PW/S SHOULD REMAIN >1.5 WITH K-INDEX
>40 THIS EVENING...STATIONARY STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ISO SVR HAIL AND
WIND EVENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE MOISTURE...CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPING LOOK HIGH FOR TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST AREAS OF
DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG WITH PATCHY FOG EAST. NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACHING
THE U80S TO L90S AND DWPTS IN THE U60S. IN ADDITION...WEAK H5 S/W
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LEE TROF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL AGAIN ADVERTISE SCT SH/TS WITH GREATEST
FAVORED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WED AND THU WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE
OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW MOS AND FORECAST A GRADUAL LOWERING
OF AFTERNOON MAXES. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF A CHC EACH DAY FOR
SH/TS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
KEEPS A MOIST SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE WEAKENS AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHIFTING THE FLOW MORE
SWLY. HOWEVER HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES. MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK OROGRAPHICS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS...AFT/EVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY RISE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ATMOS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE RIDGES ATTM.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE RIDGES INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND UPSTATE/NE GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP VCTS ALL SITES AND INCLUDE EARLY TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT KAVL
WHERE CELLS ARE CLOSING IN. VCTS ENDS ABOUT 02Z...THEN FOG BECOMES
THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING MFVR...THEN TEMPO IFR KHKY/KAND. ANY RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE
SITES WILL LIKELY MEAN IFR OR WORSE. THE MAIN CHANGE I MADE TO
PERSISTENCE IS KAVL. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG LAST NITE EVEN IN FRENCH
BROAD. KAVL STARTED TO SOCK IN...THEN LIFTED TO AND REMAINED AT
MVFR. WITH RAIN LIKELY THERE...AND MDLS INDICATING IFR...WENT WITH
PREDOMINANT IFR AND TEMPO LIFR NEAR SUNRISE. ANOTHER FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE OVERNIGHT ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD KCLT. THIS
REMAINED WELL EAST OF KCLT LAST NIGHT...AND MDLS KEEP IT EAST OF
THERE TONIGHT...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LIFR
CONDITIONS IF IT MADE IN...BUT MENTIONING IT MAINLY AS A HEADS UP
FOR NOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-071012-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
612 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL...ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ALL THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
06/06/2005  0.88 INCH        HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            AS OF 321 PM...HAIL WAS STILL FALLING.

&&

NED