Lightning Strike in North Carolina, June 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING
WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE HAS
DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 500 MB...IN
AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST BELOW TWO INCHES.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN CONVECTION AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
UPSLOPE PREFERRED REGIONS...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL 850 MB FLOW VEERS SOUTH AND THE FOCUS SHIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
SLIGHTLY ON THE DEGREE OF RESURGENT UPSLOPE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE HANDLING OF AN H5 VORT LOBE WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE MOUNTAINS
DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH SUCH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY POPS IN AND NEAR THE MTNS SEEM A GOOD
BET THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY LIFTS NORTH AND PHASES
BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM THROUGH TUE NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SPIN UP A TROPICAL LOOKING 850 MB CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. WHETHER THIS FEATURE IS REAL OR NOT...A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL PERSIST AND THE SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ALL THE
TRIGGERING THAT IS NECESSARY TO WARRANT HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
850 MB FLOW FINALLY STARTS TO BECOME WESTERLY BY THURSDAY...WITH
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING SHARPLY BACK TOWARD THE TN
BORDER. PREVIOUS IDEA OF A BOUNDARY LAYING OVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE...SEEMS REASONABLE. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE PENDING
MORNING COLLABORATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN DEEP SE FLOW WANING OVER MIDLANDS...ALL WILL
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS/VSBY
LOWERING IN RAIN MOISTENED AIR. BY MID MORNING LOW VFR VSBY/CIGS AS
WIND INCREASES SLIGHTLY FROM NE. INSTABILITY AND SOME OMEGA IN GFS
SUPPORT BEST CHACNE OF PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON WHEN GUIDANCE
HAS HIGHEST POPS. WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WITH
THUNDER FAR S AND E WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST. WIND DECREASES AND
VEERS TO SSE MID EVENING...WHEN PREVAILING MVFR VSBY/CIG WARRANTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLAN ON ISSUING AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPECIAL ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN TO
THE SW CWFA WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING THE GREATEST
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
HYDROLOGY...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-281000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
554 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CAEESFGSP...ISSUED THIS MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BAT CAVE                35.45N 82.28W
06/27/2005                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS SWIFT WATER RESCUE UNDER WAY ALONG REEDY
            PATCH CREEK NEAR HIGHWAY 64. WATER IS ALSO ENCROACHING ON
            SEVERAL HOUSES.

&&

HGERAPET