Flash Flood in North Carolina, June 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO HAYWOOD AND JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 6 PM. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TENDED TO BE ANCHORED AND
WE ARE SEEING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN OF LATE IN THE COUNTIES
THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
TO SEE FLOODING DEVELOP. HAVE ALSO UPPED THE POPS AND QPF IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE UPSTATE IS ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND SUSPECT THAT PULSE SEVERE THREAT WL INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1042 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
H5 UPPER LOW IS PARKED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWFA...AND PER THE
LATEST NAM AND RUC...IT WL STAY THERE THE REST OF THE DAY. KGSO
SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR A TEMPERATURE OF 76 AND A DEWPOINT OF 61
YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1800 AND AN LI OF -6. AS UNSTABLE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE...WITH ANY AMOUNT OF HEATING...CERTAINLY THINK
THERE WL BE GOOD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BEST SHEAR WL BE
FOUND OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWFA TDA...AND FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WL BE MINIMAL TDA. THINK THAT PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. WL
HOLD OFF ON AN OUTLOOK FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE WEAK
SHEAR...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE US ISSUE ONE A LITTLE LATER
ONCE WE GET A HANDLE ON WHERE MOST OF THE STORMS WL DEVELOP THIS
AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CHANGES MADE TO THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE WERE
FAIRLY MINOR. LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME AND LOCAL MOS ALL IMPLY THAT
MAX TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN THE U70S IN MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 223 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWFA...WITH LOW CLOUDS ERODING AND REDEVELOPING.
LOCATIONS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING REPORTING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWFA. SOME SEMBLENCE OF A CEILING
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THERE IS A BIT
OF MIXING THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL
MENTION AREAS OF FOG WITH THE ZONE PACKAGE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE OR EVEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING UPPER TROF IN OUR AREA
TODAY...BEFORE BOTH SHIFT THE TROF AXIS EAST OF OUR CWFA ON TUESDAY.
THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE VARIOUS VORTS ROTATING
AROUND OR EJECTING AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. ONE IS PROJECTED TO
SWING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER TODAY...WHERE MODELS ALSO
SHIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING...DEEPEST
MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST...IN AREA WHERE MODELS RE-DEVELOP SOME WEAK
UPGLIDE. FOR THE MORNING...WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS (50%) NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS...THEN SHIFT HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN (50%) TO OUR FAR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GET A 40% CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR 30S EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE THE
EASTERN SECTIONS GET JUST AS ACTIVE AS THE WEST LATER GIVEN THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND DEEPER DEPTH OF ANY COLD POOL.
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...DOWN TO 6.25 DEG C/KM IN THE
85H/50H LAYER FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATER...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -13C TO -14 RANGE. LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD
BE SIGNIFICANT TODAY AS THE UPPER FEATURE SPINS...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL AND LIMITING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOUTHEAST STATES IN A SEE TEXT AREA FOR THE DAY
ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AFTER HOLDING ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...WE ENTER A DRY PERIOD AS MODELS SHIFT THE TROF AXIS TO THE
EAST AND A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE COMMENCES AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF RW/TRW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THOSE PERIODS...SLIGHT CHANCE OR BELOW ALL OTHER AREAS GIVEN THE
DOWNSLOPE DISPLAYED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CWFA WILL REMAIN IN A
TROF-PATTERN THOUGH...DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS...SO WE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES A TAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE IN
SUGGESTING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MIGHT APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY
NITE BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO CHANGES MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ACROSS AREA...WITH PATCHY FOG...
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE KEPT FOG WITHIN MVFR
LIMITS EXCEPT FOR KAVL...WHERE TEMPO IFR CEILING EXPECTED. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...SOUTHEAST AT KAVL. WITH UPPER LOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING THINGS UNSTABLE..LOOK FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS AND CG CLOUDS
AT THIS TIME...KEEPING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES VFR BUT HINTING AT
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT030CB.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063 UNTIL 6
     PM MONDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-210945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
105 PM AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WESTWARD. THE
STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MADISON... HAYWOOD... JACKSON...
SWAIN... GRAHAM... AND MACON COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL RETURN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

NCZ048-051-052-059-201800-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

...NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATE LINE...

AT 1130 AM EDT...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE
TENNESSEE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE...FROM NEAR CLINGMANS DOME TO
WEST OF SPRING CREEK. SOME OF THE RAIN EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF HAYWOOD COUNTY.

THE LIGHTNING DISPLAY SYSTEM SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IN THE AREA...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT WAS CAUSING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR OR A LITTLE MORE.
ALSO...IT IS LIKELY SOME SMALL HAIL WAS FALLING IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

THE STORMS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY PEOPLE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
TRAIL AND SOME CAMP GROUNDS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE
BIG CREEK AREA OF NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD STAY IN
SHELTER UNTIL THE LIGHTNING ENDS.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     HAIL             CULLOWHEE               35.31N 83.18W
06/20/2005  0.75 INCH        JACKSON            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WESTERN CAROLINA UNIVERSITY REPORTED

&&

JONES