Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

CORRECTED NAME OF TROPICAL STORM IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BTWN 2000-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTN.
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIES WITH A COLD FRONT OVER W TN AND
WITH A VERY WEAK LEE TROF E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GFS SHOWS WEAK
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL TEND TO
MINIMIZE CONVECTION. THE NAM HOWEVER...SHOWS WEAK H5 PVA
APPROACHING THIS EVE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER CNTRL
CAROLINAS. SINCE SCT CONVECTION ALREADY GOING WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
TOWARD NAM THIS EVE. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE E
FASTER THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVE. THERE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...MAINLY WHERE ANY TRAINING OR BACK BUILDING
CELLS OCCUR.

BIG STORY IS TS CINDY WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR NEW
ORLEANS LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE SO HAVE USED THE
LATEST NHC AND HPC GUIDANCE TO BRING THE LOW N...TO FORM A WAVE ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL AL THU MORNING. THIS THEN TRACKS TO
THE NE...WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS..KEEPING CWA IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
LATE WED INTO FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE
MIX. NAM AND GFS ARE OF LITTLE HELP AND HPC HAS CHOSEN TO STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL. LATEST NHC TRACK AND HPC
GUIDANCE HAS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RELATED TO REMNANTS OF TS CINDY
VCNTY E KY...W VIRGINIAS BY EARLY SAT MORNING...SO MOISTURE SHOULD
BE PULLING OFF TO THE NE OF THE CWA DURG THE DAY SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MON. THEN...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG GULF COAST BTWN PENSACOLA AND
BILOXI SOMETIME LATER MON OR EARLY TUE AND TRACK TO THE NW
INTIALLY...THEN SLOWLY TURN N. THIS COULD BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AVIATION FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGEST FORCING FROM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER...BRINGING THE HIGHEST
THUNDER CHANCES FROM KAVL TO KHKY THROUGH 01Z. GIVEN MID LEVEL DRY
AIR IN SOUNDINGS...WILL ALSO FEATURE A 30 KT GUST POTENTIAL AT THOSE
TAF LOCATIONS. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W TO NW BEHIND THE WAVE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH IFR CIG AND VSBY ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT KAVL CIRCA 12Z WED. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM CINDY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-061530-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP...FOR
THE LATEST DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND MAY
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY MAY
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NCZ037-051900-
DAVIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MOCKSVILLE
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
EAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY...

AT 157 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN SHEFFIELD AND FARMINGTON...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM...CROSSING INTERSTATE 40 AROUND 230 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. LOCATIONS UNDER THE CORE OF THE
STORM WILL PICK UP NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL BE PRODUCED BY THIS STORM AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN DRIVING AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NCZ053-054-051900-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...MARION
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH ALONG INTERSTATE 40
BETWEEN BLACK MOUNTAIN AND OLD FORT. THIS STORM WILL CROSS INTERSTATE
40 AND BEAR DOWN ON THE TOWN OF SUGAR HILL AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL COUNTY LINE NEAR 300 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. LOCATIONS UNDER THE CORE OF THE
STORM WILL PICK UP NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL BE PRODUCED BY THIS STORM AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN DRIVING AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NCZ053-054-051900-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...MARION
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH ALONG INTERSTATE 40
BETWEEN BLACK MOUNTAIN AND OLD FORT. THIS STORM WILL CROSS INTERSTATE
40 AND BEAR DOWN ON THE TOWN OF SUGAR HILL AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL COUNTY LINE NEAR 300 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. LOCATIONS UNDER THE CORE OF THE
STORM WILL PICK UP NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL BE PRODUCED BY THIS STORM AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN DRIVING AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NCZ067-052000-
RUTHERFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTHERFORDTON
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN
RUTHERFORD COUNTY BETWEEN THERMAL CITY AND SHINGLE HOLLOW. ON THIS
PATH...THE STORM WILL BE NEAR THE TOWN OF SUNSHINE AROUND 340 PM
EDT.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND HAIL. ALSO...WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE PRODUCED BY THIS STORM.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN DRIVING AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NCZ066-052130-
POLK NC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRYON
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN
NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM REBUILDING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 26 CORRIDOR IN
EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY. ONE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS...ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR...ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.25 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
PROBABLE.

ADDITIONALLY...THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN DRIVING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 1/8 MILE. PONDING OF WATER
ALONG ROADWAYS SHOULD ALSO BE APPROACHED WITH CAUTION.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-052200-
CHEROKEE SC-CLEVELAND-GASTON-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...ROCK HILL...SHELBY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CLEVELAND COUNTY...

AT 445 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GUSTY WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY AND
EASTWARD INTO GASTON AND YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 85 FROM
GASTONIA TO GAFFNEY AND MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORMY RIDE
THROUGH 6 PM.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN DRIVING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 1/8 MILE. PONDING OF WATER
ALONG ROADWAYS SHOULD ALSO BE APPROACHED WITH CAUTION.

CSH