Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HAVE CANCELED
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH THE ADVISORY
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA UNTIL 6PM. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. A
FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WILMINGTON CWA
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS INDICATING SOME WEAK LIFT MOVING ACROSS. HIGHEST POPS WERE
PLACED OVER INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA...FRIDAYS TEMPS
WILL DROP TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO 17C BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND
TODAYS READINGS. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WEAK HARD TO
TIME DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SITUATED IN SORT
OF A COL WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH S/W
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF POPS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MID/UPPER FLOW
PARALELLING SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS SLOW MOVING STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

POPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN US AND BERMUDA HIGH NOSING
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
AROUND...WITH A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MINIMAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THUS
FAR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. CAP IS GRADUALLY BREAKING AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITATION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN TSTMS. HAZE STILL LINGER IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
INCREASED LATE AFTERNOON MIXING.

&&

.MARINE...TILL IN THE MIDST OF N/NE WINDS AS OF 18Z...BUT RUC80
INDICATES WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO E/ESE BY EARLY EVENING AND THIS
TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED IN FCST. SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL S/SSW FLOW
FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. WEAK BOUNDARY TO DROP
INTO THE NRN WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A NE/E FLOW REGIME TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SEAS...WNAWAVE INDICATES INCREASED WAVE/SWELL ENERGY BETWEEN
EXITING T.S. FRANKLIN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL SYSTEM
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS ENERGY
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY AS GFS SHOWS
TROPICAL LOW INTO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS SENDING AN ESE SWELL TOWARD
OUR CSTL WATERS.

RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW FOR FRIDAY AS SWELL ENERGY
STILL MINIMAL AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE INCREASING THREAT SATURDAY AND AGAIN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104
     UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...WINGENROTH
LONG TERM...WINGENROTH
AVIATION...COLLINS
MARINE...COLLINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-290900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
458 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S COUPLED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110
DEGREES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WILL HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ103-290900-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-OUTER BANKS DARE-
458 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.