Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
LOW LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH 00Z WHERE CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. SOUNDINGS
REMAIN QUITE WARM...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE WIND OR HAIL THREAT
ANTICIPITATED. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VAD WIND PROFILE EXHIBITS 15 TO 20 KT OF
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. ANY FLOODING THREAT WOULD HAVE TO RESULT
FROM TRAINING IN THE PIEDMONT OR BACKBUILDING NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN MON MORNING GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN SOUNDINGS...BUT LIGHT SW FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PIEDMONT FOG.

ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS AREA MON THROUGH
WED WHILE FLOW ALONG CANADIAN BORDER BECOMES ZONAL. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER AREA...WITH SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WED. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PERSIST... ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME
DRYING OF MID LEVELS FROM TOP DOWN WITH TIME. EXPECT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WED...WITH BEST POPS
IN MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL AID CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...AND N TIER WED AS FRONT APPROACHES. AS HEIGHTS
BUILD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME MAXIMUMS
WHICH HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS RECENTLY. WITH
DEW POINTS STILL RATHER HIGH...EXPECT HEAT INDEX NEAR 100 FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO EACH DAY IN PORTIONS OF FAR S AND CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA...BUT STILL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STARTS WITH BRIEF E COAST TROUGHING...FOLLOWED
BY CENTER OF WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO AREA FROM W. AT
THIS TIME COLD FRONTS CROSSING NE USA WED AND SAT NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THIS FAR S...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYTEMS
MAY HAVE AN IMPACT. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CONVECTION
...DIMINISHING SOME AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY SPARSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE TODAY WILL RELEGATE VICINITY
TSTM MENTION CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE...MAINLY IMPACTING KAVL AND
KHKY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PROFILES FOR TONIGHT LOOK VERY SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WERE CONFINED TO KAVL AND
KHKY. WILL ALSO MENTION NARROW WINDOW OF MVFR VSBY AT KAND AFTER 10Z
GIVEN SW LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAKE. CCL REMAINS NEAR 4000 FT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS CONVECTIVE CU WILL SET UP AGAIN AFTER
14Z MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-180930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
529 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LANE