Damaging Wind in North Carolina, February 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 AM EST MON FEB 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
MANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN CHALLENGING FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. STRONG BOW ECHO OVER CENTRAL TN WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIR AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN NC MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE TSTMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT PRESENT...BUT RESIDUAL WIND ENERGY
WITH DECAYING MCS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY. INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP FROM ERN TN INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SW. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MAY ACTUALLY POOL ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FORCING WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AS WARM ADVECTION LIFT ABATES
SLIGHTLY AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT VORT MAX TO THE W DIMINISHES
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS SLIGHTLY AND SHEARS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE CONTINUES AND STRENTHENS THROUGH THE AFTN. WAVES
SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE ONLY SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT BETTER FORCING DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
MID LEVELS DRY SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THIS COULD
ACTUALLY AIDE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION SOMEWHAT.

DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM ERN TN SHOULD TRACK OVER WRN NC AND
SEVERELY LIMIT MAX TEMP RISE. WILL TRIMS TEMPS DOWN
THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH MUCH LESS CHANGE OVER SRN SECTIONS WITH
STRONGER DRYING AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOPING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 402 AM EST MON FEB 21 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REENTERING OUR CWFA ATTM.
THIS PRECIP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POP WITH THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING. POP
GRADUALLY DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPGLIDE ENDS. HOWEVER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL
KEEP POP THRU THE AFTERNOON.

MDLS INDICATING MCS-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE WRN/SRN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT AS FNT PUSHES THRU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM SOLN
WITH CHC POP WRN/SRN SECTIONS TAPERING OFF TO NO POP NORTH.

BASICALLY DRY FCST REST OF THE PERIOD AS ATMOS DRIES OUT AND ANY
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWFA. COULD BE A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUE NITE NRN MTNS...SO DO HAVE A SILENT 20 POP
THERE.

GUIDANCE HIGHS CLOSE TODAY. WENT TOWARD WARMER MET TONIGHT SINCE
FOLLOWING NAM SOLN. THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND...AND OTHER MDLS SUPPPORT GFS
SUPPRESSING GULF SYSTEMS FARTHER SOUTH THRU THIS PERIOD. HAVE
REMOVED POP THRU THUR NITE IN LINE WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORS. NO
CHANGES TO OTHER FIELDS OR DAYS.

AVIATION...
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE STEADY IN THE IFR...OR AT LEAST MVFR
CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT BEHIND
APPROACHING SW TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD IFR VISBY UNTIL
MIXING COMMENCES AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP SHOULD BE OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWER VARIETY THIS MORNING AT BEST. AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVMENT IN CEILINGS AND
VISBY TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING OVER THE REGION...AND SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNY OF THE LEE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL JUST MENTION
VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT DONT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EST MON FEB 21 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-221100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1116 AM EST MON FEB 21 2005

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-212000-
AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-GRAHAM NC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-MACON NC-
MADISON NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
1116 AM EST MON FEB 21 2005

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER...COULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
REACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AT THE RATE OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AS THE THUNDERSTORMS REACH
THE VICINITY OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 2 PM...WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ALSO POSE A HAZARD WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER INDOORS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA OUTLET...IN CASE ANY WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY WITH THIS LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

GERAPETRITIS