Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MEANDERS JUST TO THE N. ATMOSPHERE QUITE UNSTABLE AND WITH SFC
HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING...ISOLD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SCT
COVERAGE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...ISOLD ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW FRI WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...RIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTN AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AFTN-EVE. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT LATE THIS
AFTN...THEN LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES... MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING BY A COUPLE DEGREES
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BY SAT AFTERNOON...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OR NEAR THE AREA...AS UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE AT ODDS
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM
BUILDING A RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE RIDGE (COINCIDENT WITH LARGE AREA
OF LOW LAYER RH) OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SAT...NORTH OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP BUT WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE GFS...WHICH ALSO
DEVELOPS THIS CIRCULATION...IS NOT AS SHARP WITH THE RIDGE...AND
ACTUALLY SPREADS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FEATURE TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST CONDITIONS...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SAT AND
SUN.

DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE COULD IMPROVE BY MID-WEEK...AS THE GFS
DEPICTS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A BIT...IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
SW TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL
TAPER POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AS DEEP LAYER DRYING COMMENCES IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SW TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MTNS AND NC PIEDMONT CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SO HAVE INCLUDED CB CLOUD TYPE AT KAVL AND KHKY INTO THIS EVE.
EXPECT TEMPO EARLY AM IFR FOG AT KAVL...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ELSEWHERE TIL 14Z. BY EARLY AFTN FRI A SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OUT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW. HAVE ADDED CB CLOUDS ALL TAF SITES BY NOON AND VCTS AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-050945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
536 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E CLAYTON             34.88N 83.35W
08/04/2005                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COMMS CENTER REPORTS TREE DOWN ON WARWOMAN RD

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE CLAYTON            34.85N 83.36W
08/04/2005                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COMMS CENTER REPORTS TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 76

&&

LANE