Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL STRETCH FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
WESTERLY UPSLOPE PROVIDING THE BEST SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE BAND WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL REACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK. IMPROVING NORTHWEST FLOW
COULD AID UPSLOPE TRIGGERING OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE NW MTNS.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD MAKE
A RUN AT THE NC MTNS LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT...WITH UNUSUALLY WARM HIGH MOUNTAIN MIN TEMPS GIVEN
THERMAL PROFILE AND IMPROVING LATE NIGHT MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS FROM GREAT LAKES TO
APPALACHIANS SUN THROUGH TUE. WARM HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER AERA SUNDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX AREOUND 105 S AND E PORTIONS.
WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY THOSE AREAS. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. FROPA NOW
EXPECTED LATE MON...WARRANTING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. DEW POINTS
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP SUN NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT MONDAY MAX TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGRESS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLD ADVECTION WAITS UNTIL TUE...WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL. GRADUAL DRYING TO REDUCE POPS IN W
AND N MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES UPPER TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST WED...BRIEF
RIDGING THURSDAY...THEN TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG E COAST FRI...WHICH
WEAKENS BUT PERSISTS THROUGH SAT. SURFACE FRONT OVER GULF STREAM WED
GRADUALLY SHIFT S TO 30 N LAT BY FRI...REMAINING THERE SAT. MOISTURE
ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY REMAINS IN E PORTION OF AREA WED/THU...THEN
SHIFTS S AS WELL. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHACNE POPS WED/THU...THEN NO
POPS FRI. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NE TO E SAT...WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POP SAT S PORTION...CLOSEST TO BOUNDARY...AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SPREADS W TOWARD BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THU...THEN WARM TOWARD NORMAL AS AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING MTN CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL REQUIRE VICINITY THUNDERSTORM MENTION FROM KAVL TO KHKY AS
SCATTERED TSRA MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AIR LATE
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY WARM EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AND SOME NW FLOW MTN
MIXING LATE...BUT MVFR VSBY WILL STILL BE LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE OVERVIEW PERIOD SHOULD SEE
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCT TO BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
     HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ028>029 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-072-082 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
     HEAT ADVISORY FRO NCZ069>072-082 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ009>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
     HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ006>009-010>014-019 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-211945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...FROM CHARLOTTE TO LAURENS TO HARTWELL...WHERE THE HEAT
INDEX WILL BE AROUND 105 DEGREES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM LINCOLNTON
AND CONCORD...TO GREENVILLE AND LAURENS...TO HARTWELL AND
ELBERTON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

NCZ034-035-054>056-066>070-202030-
ALEXANDER-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN NC-
MCDOWELL-POLK NC-RUTHERFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GASTONIA...HICKORY...LINCOLNTON...MARION...
MORGANTON...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...TRYON
327 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...

AT 327 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM COLUMBUS TO HICKORY IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH AND WERE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM HARRIS TO LINCOLNTON TO NEWTON
THROUGH 430 PM.

HG