Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...GFS AND NAM DISAGREE ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. NAM MOVES KEEPS MOVING IT
SOUTH WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. NAM LOOKS
TOO FAST AND TOO DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WOULD PREFER A GFS
SOLUTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ONCE AFTERNOON CU
DISSIPATES EARLY THIS EVENING. SUNDAY WILL VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA ALL AREAS SO WILL CARRY ANOTHER ONE FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO AROUND 850 AND BELOW
WITH AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG. CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING
POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE OR OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN CLOSER TO THE LEESIDE TROF OVER THE CENRAL PART OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE WILL CARRY 20 POPS AGAIN. TROF WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
GETS CLOSER. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP IN CHANCE POPS. ON
MONDAY THE FRONT DRIFTS ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME GOOD LIFT COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WENT WITH 50
PERCENT POPS. FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE
WILL BE DEEP AND PLENTIFUL WITH GOOD LIFT. THE GFS MAKES IT LOOK
LIKE LIKELY POPS BUT DONT WANT TO GO THAT HIGH JUST YET. BEST TO
WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO UPPER TROF DIGGING
ALONG EAST COAST AND GREAT LAKES HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIED THINGS OUT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW
BKN STRATOCU DECK AND AREAS OF FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT IN VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR TO LIFT
BY AROUND 13Z. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH VFR AND A
LIGHT WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
NORTHERN WATERS WHERE LIGHT E/NE WINDS EXIST AS VERY WEAK SFC LOW
RESIDES OFFSHORE. VERY LIGHT SEAS WITH 2 FT OR LESS AREAWIDE. LEE
TROUGH WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS AVERAGING 3 FT OR LESS. MARINE FORECAST BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LATEST GFS IS
WANTING TO STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND
BRINGS IT THROUGH A DAY EARLIER. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN. GFS
DEVELOPS SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS TIME WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WATERS
WHERE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL EXIST. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE 3-4
FT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY WITH 4-5 FT EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT
RANGE ON THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104
     UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104
     FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-
103-104-210815-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-MARTIN-PITT-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-
DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
410 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
6 PM THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
90 TO 95 NEAR THE COAST ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.