Flood in North Carolina, August 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES
WITHIN LIFT FROM S/WV INDICATED ON WV LOOPS AND UPSLOPE FLOW...AS
PER KGSP 88D VWP. SVRL AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATING 4.5 TO 5.5
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LIFT
CONTINUING THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/WV...CONTINUED
AND DEEPENING/VEERING SSELY/WAA LLVL FLOW LIFTING PWATS OF 1.9
INCHES AND ANTECEDENT CONDS...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS FOR
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FTHLS DUE TO THE THREAT OF AGGRAVATED/
ADDITIONAL FLOODING. OTHERWISE...DEEP RH WILL LIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITHIN WAA PATTERN AND THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS. ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EXISTS...EVEN FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE MEAN DRYING DECREASES OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...CONTINUED MEAN DRYING UNDER RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED
FOR THE CWFA RESULTING IN REBOUNDING MAX TEMPS AND JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CWFA REMAINS UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SATURDAY AS MAX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AGAIN...JUST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM ACTIVITY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO REST OF MEDIUM RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...
KGSP RADAR SHOWS SOUTHEAST WINDS IN LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AT
06Z...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. EXPECT THE LOW CEILING TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...AFTER WHICH LIMITED
HEATING WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO LOW VFR RANGE. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO
BE OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTED TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...EITHER BY FOG OR
SHOWERS...THROUGH SUNRISE. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A REALLY GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING AT THIS POINT IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO I WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD WITH MERELY A VCSH
UNTIL IT CAN BE DETERMINED THAT MVFR VISBY WILL PERSIST FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME. FOR THE OUTLOOK...EXPECT A PERIOD IN THE EVENING
WHERE LOW CEILINGS LIFT...BEFORE RETURNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NCZ033-034-049-050-054-055 UNTIL 6 PM.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-181030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
621 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 NW MORGANTON         35.84N 81.82W
08/18/2005                   BURKE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STEELS CREEK OUT OF BANKS. CAMPERS STRANDED. WATER RESCUE
            IN PROGRESS.

0119 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 W MORGANTON          35.74N 81.88W
08/18/2005                   BURKE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTH MUDDY CREEK AND REEDY CREEK OUT OF BANKS ALONG US
            HIGHWAY 70. OTHER FLOODING REPORTED ALONG LAIL RD NORTH
            OF GLEN ALPINE.

0205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W COLLETTSVILLE       35.93N 81.72W
08/18/2005                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG WILSONS CREEK NEAR BROWN MOUNTAIN
            BEACH CAMPGROUND. WATER OVER BRIDGE. OTHER FLOODING
            REPORTED ALONG JOHNS RIVER.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW COLLETTSVILLE      35.89N 81.70W
08/18/2005                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PLAYMORE BEACH ROAD FLOODED AT THE FIRST BRIDGE...NEAR
            CONFLUENCE OF WILSONS CREEK AND THE JOHNS RIVER.

&&

MOORE