Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
STEERING FLOW...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LARGELY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS HAS CAPES OF
3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AWAITING TRIGGERING FROM
OUTFLOWS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
UNIFORM WESTERLY THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED HYDROLOGY CONCERNS
COULD BE PARAMOUNT UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AXIS BISECTING THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND MOIST PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE BRINGING SOME WEAK 850 TO 500
MB DPVA TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF A BROAD JET AXIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON WED...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING WILL THEN COVER THE AREA
WED...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE MID TERM (WED
NIGHT-FRI) AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO THE N SETTLES S OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES FOR
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING WED NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO FRI ALONG WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF DECENT OMEGA. IN
FACT...GFS DEVELOPS A WEDGE OVER THE AREA ON THU AND MAINTAINS IT
THROUGH FRI BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO PLAY. NAM ONLY
HINTS AT A WEAK WEDGE ON THU AND QUICKLY WASHES IT OUT BY FRI.
BELIEVE THAT THE TRUTH LIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AND WILL PATTERN
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT...WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING SKY COVER ALONG WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TRENDING TO CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT.
BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION
PROVIDING THE TRIGGER. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY THU...THEN
POPS RAMPING BACK UP TO LIKELY THU AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS
DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE AND UPPER SHORT WAVE. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ON FRI BUT WEAK UPSLOPE TO PERSIST WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN GRIDS.

IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...UPPER HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP S
BY SAT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SAT THROUGH MOST OF SUN...ALONG WITH
RISING TEMPS. BOTH ECWMF AND GFS ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AREA BY LATE SUN WHICH IS ADVERTISED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MON PRODUCING POPS ABOVE CLIMO. LOTS OF
MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE EVEN BEHIND FRONT SO WILL HAVE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS AGAIN TUE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE THE TRIGGER.

TEMPERATURES TO START OFF BELOW NORMAL...RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THEN TREND BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION FIRING MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BRING CONVECTION CLOSEST TO KAVL AND KHKY THROUGH 21Z. TSRA
COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH TOWARD THE
REGION...INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES FROM KAVL TO KHKY TO KCLT. MVFR
VISIBILITY SHOULD SET UP FROM 06Z TO 08Z OVERNIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
WORSE CONDITIONS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO GREATER ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL. VSBY SHOULD THEN RECOVER TO VFR DURING THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOPING WITH
WEAK FRONT LURKING IN THE AREA THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-171030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
616 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HOT AFTERNOON IS ON TAP WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
102 OR 103 ACROSS PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

NCZ064-065-162045-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
346 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN HENDERSON COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
IN WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.  THE STORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE OVER HENDERSON
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT HOUR

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR.
IN ADDITION...THE STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 45
MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER INDOORS.

DARCY/DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

SCZ001-004-162100-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN OCONEE COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OCONEE COUNTY...THE
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
LONG CREEK...WALHALLA AND MOUNTAIN REST DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR.
IN ADDITION...THE STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 45
MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER INDOORS.

DARCY/DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

NCZ053-162100-
BUNCOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ASHEVILLE
408 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BUNCOMBE COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTY...THE STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BENT CREEK...BILTMORE FOREST...AVERY CREEK...
AND SKYLAND DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR.
IN ADDITION...THE STORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO 45 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER INDOORS.

DARCY/DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

NCZ035-162130-
ALEXANDER-
450 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ALEXANDER COUNTY...

AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELLENDALE...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE BY 500 PM EDT.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

SCZ010-162200-
ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ANDERSON
506 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANDERSON...

AT 502 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 2 MILES EAST OF ANDERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THROUGH 6 PM...THIS STORM WILL MAINLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AND SOUTH OF BELTON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER INDOORS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

SCZ006-007-162230-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN GREENVILLE AND
WESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AIRPORT...MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THROUGH 630 PM...THIS STORM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE OF GREENVILLE...AND
LOCATIONS AROUND REIDVILLE AND DUNCAN.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER INDOORS.

LANE