Hail in North Carolina, April 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATING TO CAPTURE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS ON RADAR...AND TO ADJUST
DAYS ONE THROUGH THREE FOR LATEST MODEL DATA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEDGE BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM KCLT TO KTRI. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY EXISTS
TO S IN UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SE WINDS OVER UPSTATE SC.
ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING E ACROSS AL TOWARD GA. WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL INCREASE POPS TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...KEEPING MENTION OF SEVERE IN WATCH AREA NE GA
AND UPSTATE SC.

UPDATED WINDS WITH 18Z GFS...TRIMMING WIND SPEEDS LATE AS UPPER LOW EXITS
AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER MUCH OF DAYS ONE TO THREE AS MOISTURE LINGERS
AROUND PERIPHERY OF LOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS DAY THREE TO ALIGN BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT WORDING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND POPULATED DEW POINT
GRIDS FROM ADJUSTED GFS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 431 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR GA/SC ZONES FOR CONVECTION
DEVLOPING IN GA IN HIGH SHEAR...MARGINAL INSTABILIT.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES DRY SLOT HAS PENETRATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CWFA. UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE...LOW CLOUDS WERE ABLE TO SCOUR
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AS THE DEEPER RH AND BETTER
FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...THE HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.
THEREFORE...WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...TO THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THIS EVENING. BACKDOOR
FRONT/WEDGE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWFA...AND MAY NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...AS
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. FAR NORTHEEASTERN ZONES MAY STILL SEE A DECENT
IN SITU CAD EVENT...ESPECIALLY AS PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASES.

LATER TONIGHT...WILL LOWER POPS TO A CHANCE NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTH. LIKELY POPS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...WRAPPING DEEP RH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE
POPS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A DRY MEDIUM RANGE. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS STILL CAUSE FOR CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER CHUNK OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FEW DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE OLD FORECAST
AND THE NEW NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE
TO TEMPS/SKY/WIND. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WITH SOME RETURN MOISTURE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE SHOWERY
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
PREMATURE.

AVIATION...
ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON THE AVIATION FORECAST AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS ACTUALLY RETREATED
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMED
WHEN SUN PEEKED THROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. ALTHO CEILING
MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THAT VFR CEILING WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE EVENING WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. WITH THAT DEPARTURE FROM GUIDANCE...
THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EVENTUALLY THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SW
LATE THIS EVENING...SO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE
INTRODUCED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PER MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-131001-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
601 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...ISSUED UNDER THE PRODUCT
INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAESPSGSP...FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             6 SSE ANDERSON          34.44N 82.61W
04/12/2005  1.50 INCH        ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COVERED GROUND

&&

JONES

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