Flood in New York, November 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS N-S ORIENTED AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HEADING DUE N UP THE APPLCNS INTO NE PA AND C NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LL FLO FROM 850 MB AND BLO IS S-SE WITH A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LVL JET SHOWG UP CLSE TO 850 MB. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE A
DECENT HANDL ON THIS JET STRUCTURE WHICH SHOWS THAT THE LL WINDS
ACCELERATE N INTO NE PA AND C NY BY THIS EVE IN RESPONSE THE NEWRD
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE CYCLONE IN THE UPR LAKES AND SC CANADA. THERE
WAS ALSO A STRG UPR LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION TO OUR NW TO ENHANCE
THE UPR LVL DVRG. THIS LL JET IS LEADING TO STRG LL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INTO A CD FRNT WHICH WILL SLOLY CROSS C NY/NE PA
TONIGHT. UNTIL THIS FRNT PASSES...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE
TAPERING DOWN TO SCT SHWRS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES LIKELY WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF MORE THAN 3 INCHES
FALLS...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
PROBLEMS EVEN ON THE LARGER RIVERS. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WIDESPREAD
WILL NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT RIVER PROBLEMS...SOME OF THE SMALLER
RIVER POINTS WILL APPROACH BANKFUL. MORE THAN 2 INCHES WILL CAUSE
SOME MINOR PROBLEMS. THUS WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH ALL CWA THRU
TONIGHT.

WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE SINCE THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED THE SFC
LYR TO STABILIZE AND NOW MOST WINDS WERE GUSTING 20-30 KTS
WHICH IS SUB ADVY CRITERIA.

RAINFALL WILL TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AS THIS MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD
OF FRNT MOVES TO THE E AFTER 06Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRNT.
THEREFORE WILL TAPER THE PRECIP DOWN BY THEN.

FOR WED...ANTHR UPR LVL SHRT WAVE MOVES ACRS THE ERN LAKES AND
INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SPARK OFF A FEW RW AND SW IN C
NY. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES BY...THEN THERE WILL BE A FEW SN SHWRS
AND FLURRIES IN CNY ON A UNIDIRECTIONAL NW LL FLO. IT WILL BE COLD
AT 850 MB (ARND -8C) BUT THE INV IS LOW ENUF AND IT IS VERY DRY ABV
THE 850 MB LAYER. I DONT SEE ENUF LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO GET PARCELS
TO COLDER THAN -12C AT THE TOP OF THE CLD LAYER.  AGAIN IT IS DRY
ABV THIS INV LAYER TO SUPPORT FLURRIES WED NGT IN C NY. REST OF CWA
PC TO MC AND COLDER.

FOR THURSDAY...NEXT SYS RAPIDLY APPCHES THU. BEST WAA IS FOUND CLSE
TO 700 MB AND MAINLY ACRS NRN AND CNTRL NY. SEE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
SW- MOST ZONES...MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHWRS IN THE NRN FINGER LAKES
WHERE BNDRY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALSO...HAVE JUST
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN NE PA WHERE MID-LVL WAA FORCING AND MOISTURE
IS LESS. - NICOSIA
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
STILL A WAYS OFF, BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND
-12C DURING FRIDAY AND GOOD FETCH OFF THE LAKE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WRAPPING UP IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN
CANADA. KEPT HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE A BAND WILL SET UP THIS FAR OUT, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BUMP
POPS UP IN LES FAVORED AREAS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. LAKE EFFECT WILL
LINGER THRU SATURDAY BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OF COURSE THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR MONDAY, WITH CHC LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. -LABOUNTY

&&

.AVIATION (29/18Z - 30/18Z)...
WIDESPREAD RAIN MVG INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. VERY STRONG WINDS
WILL HLP MIX THE LOWEST LVLS...HELPING TO KEEP CIGS AND VSBYS ABV
THE IFR RANGE...BUT MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS. WINDS AND SHEAR WILL
DIMINSH THRU THE AFTN AND EVE AS THE RAIN CONTS...AND CIGS WILL LWR
AT TIMES TO NEAR IFR LVLS ESP ON THE HILLTOPS. SHRP BACK ESGE TO THE
PCPN AS A COLD FNT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO 180-220. CIGS MAY CREEP
UP TO VFR LATE NGT. FOG SHD NOT BE A PRBLM AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN
DROPPING DEW PTS. VFR CONDS WED WITH WLY FLOW. CLD DECK OVC TO BKN
THRU 18Z. - MORFORD

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL ZONES
.PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL ZONES.
&&

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