Hail in New York, May 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 EDT MON MAY 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
PERSISTENCE FCST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS BROAD MID TO UPPER LVL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN CONUS PERSISTS INTO MID WEEK ALONG WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
MORE ZONAL MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW ARGUES FOR DRIER CONDS ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THU.

NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND SRN
PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING JAMES BAY POLAR VORTEX STILL ON TRACK TO
TRAVERSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY...SENSIBLE WX FEATURED
SHRAS...ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL...AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO EXCEPTION. IN FACT AREAL
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY DUE TO SHARPER
NATURE OF TROUGH AND BETTER FORCING/LIFT...THOUGH THUNDER SHOULD
AGAIN BE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT AT BEST. MODIFIED BUFKIT SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES OF 200-300 J/KG..AND WITH VERY LOW
WBZ HEIGHTS PERSISTING ACROSS AREA AND COLD MID LVL TEMP PROFILES
(-30C AT 500 HPA) SMALL HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
HEAVIER CELLS. DESPITE AMPLE BNDRY LYR MIXING...MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE -2 TO -4C RANGE TODAY...THUS TEMPS TO REMAIN SOME
5-8 DEGREES BELOW EARLY MAY NORMS. WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF AN
EVENING SHRA AS TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF AREA...THEN BKN/OVC CONDS TO
PERSIST OVERNT UNDER LT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO DAVIS STRAIT REGION...BROAD ERN CONUS TROUGH LINGERS INTO MID
WEEK...ALBEIT IN A WEAKER/FLATTER STATE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH TROUGH BASE TO BRING A LOW...THOUGH CONTINUED CHC
SHRA BOTH TUE AND WED ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. SHRAS SHOULD BE
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN HERE THUS THE MAJORITY OF THESE TWO DAYS
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...WITH HIGHEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS DURING 6
HOUR WINDOW ENCOMPASSING TIME OF MAX HEATING. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

BY LATER WED INTO THUR MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS
OUT...ALLOWING FOR MORE ZONAL FLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION BOTH
ARGUE FOR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS BY THURSDAY AND TEMPS
REBOUNDING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO EXT PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME...WITH EARLY SUMMER
LIKE CONDS POSSIBLY ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OP GUIDANCE ARGUES FOR SFC HIGH TO BUILD
OFFSHORE BY LATER FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WSW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE FROM SFC TO MID LVLS. IF 00Z GFS FCST IS CLOSE TO REALITY
DURING SAT/SUN...WARM AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
ADVECTED EASTWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 11C BY 00Z
MONDAY. THUS TEMPS TO POSSIBLY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MID CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN TO VFR
CIG. RAIN TO BEGIN 14Z AT KMSS FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST. LEFT
MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS CHANCES TOO LOW...BUT
DID INCLUDE WDLY SCT TSRAGR IN TWEB. RAIN TO END AROUND
SUNSET...THEN BKN VFR CIG THROUGH REST OF NIGHT.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...HANSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2005

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-030754-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL CAUSE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...BUT HAIL SIZES WILL BE
PEA SIZED OR SMALLER. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...AND BE
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HANSON