Hail in New York, August 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 PM MON AUG 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
TONIGHT...H5 SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA TO CATSKILLS THIS
EVENING COMBINED WITH JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH MORE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR FAR SE ZONES. LATER THIS EVENING AFTER
JET DYNAMICS WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO SUSQ, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED AND LIFT FROM SHORT WAVE MAY STILL GENERATE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS STILL ACROSS NE PA THROUGH WESTERN
CATSKILLS BUT LACKS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
EXPERIENCED TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS CNTRL/SRN ZONES AND
KEEP SLIGHT CHC FOR FAR NRN ZONES. T85 TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY AFTER
PASSAGE OF H5 SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT BUT REBOUND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLIGHTLY COOLER T85 LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
CATEGORY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE SFC WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG
EAST COAST AND ADVECTS MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO FAR
SE ZONES PRIMARILY TOWARD MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS HERE
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO FASTEN PACE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FAR SE ZONES DURING MORNING WITH SFC WAVE IN VCNTY
THEN SPREAD POPS NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES REGION LATE DAY.  RRM

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MONDAY)...
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER ERN NOAM/WRN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD.  MED RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON FROPA LATE THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN EXPECT AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT TO BE A SHALLOW...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
BEING DRIER LL AIR...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.  LL RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY
SAT...WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING UNTIL NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SUN NIGHT/MON.  -CEMPA

.AVIATION (08/18Z - 09/18Z)...
KUCA/KSYR/KITH/KELM...MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ...MAINLY TO MVFR THRU THIS
EVENING...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROPS TO IFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.  CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH JUST A HIGH BKN DECK.

KBGM/KAVP...VFR CIGS WITH VFR/MVFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON IN HZ...THOUGH
SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VIS TO IFR AT
TIMES...AND CIGS TO MVFR AT TIMES.  VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT
WITH SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  -CEMPA

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR NYZ062.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
415 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-090800-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
415 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ057-PAZ040-081745-
DELAWARE NY-WAYNE PA-
1251 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

...THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1249 PM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR HIAWATHA LAKE..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HALE EDDY AT 100 PM EDT
  HANCOCK AT 120 PM EDT
  FISHS EDDY AND CANNONSVILLE AT 145 PM EDT

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AT A RATE OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

GILT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ062-081830-
SULLIVAN NY-
124 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...

* AT 119 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE LOCATED FROM CALLICOON TO BETHEL MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITE LAKE AT 130 PM EDT
  MONGAUP VALLEY AT 155 PM EDT
  SWAN LAKE AND MAPLEWOOD AT 205 PM EDT
  HARRIS AT 220 PM EDT
  FERNDALE AT 225 PM EDT
  LIBERTY AND HURLEYVILLE AT 230 PM EDT

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALLL AT A RATE OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

GILT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ022-081845-
STEUBEN NY-
142 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

...THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 141 PM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST CAMERON..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUENA VISTA AT 145 PM EDT
  NORTH CAMERON AT 205 PM EDT
  HOWARD AT 220 PM EDT
  KANONA AND BATH AT 245 PM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATE OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN AN HOUR..AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

GILT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ045-046-057-081845-
CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-OTSEGO NY-
146 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 145 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WAS LOCATED NEAR AFTON..AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAINBRIDGE AT 155 PM EDT
  MASONVILLE AT 200 PM EDT
  SIDNEY AT 210 PM EDT
  ROCKDALE AT 230 PM EDT
  EAST SIDNEY AT 240 PM EDT
  WELLS BRIDGE AT 245 PM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

GILT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ046-082045-
OTSEGO NY-
403 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTY...

* AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEONARDSVILLE TO EXETER CENTER TO
  CHERRY VALLEY..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEONARDSVILLE AT 410 PM EDT
  SPRINGFIELD AT 420 PM EDT
  UNADILLA FORKS AND RICHFIELD SPRINGS AT 425 PM EDT

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

NYZ015-016-082045-
SENECA NY-YATES NY-
411 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN YATES AND
SENECA COUNTIES...

* AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM  SOUTHWEST OF VINE VALLEY TO MIDDLESEX TO FERGUSON
  CORNERS TO DRESDEN..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROMULUS AT 420 PM EDT
  RUSHVILLE AT 425 PM EDT
  MAC DOUGALL AND EAST VARICK AT 430 PM EDT
  VINE VALLEY AND ROSE HILL AT 435 PM EDT
  BORDER CITY AT 440 PM EDT
  PACKWOOD CORNERS AND WATERLOO AT 445 PM EDT

MJ