Flooding in New York, April 27 to 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT WED APR 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
OCLD FNT PAST FA WITH BEST OVERRUNNING AND MOISTURE CONVEYOR
BELT ACRS ME WITH DRY SLOT AND SCT -SHRA ACTVTY ACRS MOST OF
VT/NH. MEANWHILE...CHMPL VLY IN A TROF AT ALL LVLS ACCNTG FOR
SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ROTATING S/W IN BASE OF NEG TILT ULVL
TROF CAUSING SOME INSTABILTY/MID-LVL LIFT AND SOME CONVECTION
FM NJ N THRU CHMPL VLY.

THE VRY SLOW MOTION OF THIS ULVL TROF SHLD ALLOW FOR SVRL MORE
HRS OF -RA/-SHRA WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/+SHRA PSBL BUT LIFTING NE
WITH TIME AS WELL.

PRVS FCST HNDLS WELL ENUF...THUS NO CHGS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
STEADY PCPN HAS EXITED BUT LGTR WNDS AND VARYING ROUNDS OF SHRA WL
MEAN A CHAOTIC SKY/VSBY OVRNGT WITH IFR TO VFR AT VARIOUS TIMES THRU
10Z. THEREAFTER...GRDL IMPROVEMNT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN 1/4 TO 1/2 ACRS VT WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACRS NY WHERE
GROUND APPARENTLY STL VRY SATURATED FM LAST WKNDS EVENT AND HAS
CAUSED AUSABLE RIVER (ASFN6) TO RISE 2.5 WITHIN THE PAST 3 HRS AND
STL RISING. STEADIEST PCPN HAS EXITED AREA BUT SVRL HRS OF RESPONSE
TIME
IS LKLY PLUS THE BACKEDGE OF RAIN SHIELD MAY REDEVELOP AS PER SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION ABV.

THEREFORE...FLOOD WARNING FOR AUSABLE RIVER. OTHER RIVERS APPEAR TO
BE BEHAVING ATTM AND WL WATCH CLOSELY OVRNGT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 332 PM EDT WED APR 27 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA HAS REMAINED OVER N NY FOR MOST
OF THE DAY MVG S TO N. SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP OVER VT ATTM. THIS
PRECIP SHIELD WILL LIFT NORTH AND E THIS EVENING...INCR POPS FOR VT
FOR OVERNITE HRS. WILL ADJUST POPS IN GRIDS TO REFLECT PRECIP MVMNT.
THIS PRECIP ALONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THURS MORN.
SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED AS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND
EAST...W/NE KINGDOM SEEING LAST BIT W/ HIGHEST POPS...THURS. MDLS
ALSO SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH COMING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CANADA THURS INTO FRI MORN WHICH WILL MV ACROSS CWA. LOOKS GD TO AT
LEAST TRIGGER OFF -RW SO WILL PUT IN. ALL PRECIP NORTH OF CWA BY
LATE MORN FRI W/ SOME CLDS LEFT OVER AREA...SO WILL KEEP MOST OF FRI
DRY. AREA RIVER GAGES STILL LOOKING GD ATTM W/ NO NOTABLE PROBLEMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
H/5 TROF SWINGS THRU GRTLKS RGN SAT AND THEN ACRS NEW ENG SUN WITH
UPR LO ESTABLISHED OVR QUE SUN AND MON. EXPCT MOIST SW FLO ALFT AND
HV CONTD SHOWERY PD SAT-SAT NGT...THEN BRF DRY PD LATE SAT NGT ERLY
SUN MRNG...THEN CHC SHWR IN RESPONSE TO UPR LO ERN CANADA. WLY FLO
ACRS AREA LTR MON AND TUES WITH AIRMASS DRYING OUT.

ASOCD SFC LO TRACKS ACRS CNTRL GRTLKS SAT INTO WRN QUE SUN. CDFNT
MOVS ACRS OUR AREA LATE SAT NGT. THUS PCPN SHUD BE OF A SHOWERY
NATURE. AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN MOVS ACRS AREA SAT AFTN AND EVE
FOLLOWED BY BRF DRY LOT SUN MRNG.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
MSTR SPRDG ACRS THE RGN RESULTING IN CIG ARND 15 HND FT IN THE MTNS
AND 3K FT VLY AREAS THRU 22Z THIS AFTN...THEN CONDS LWR TO BTWN 1
AND 2K FT ACRS ENTIRE AREA WITH VSBY ARND 3 MI IN SHWRS. AFT 08Z
TNGT PCPN TAPERS OFF WITH OVC CLDS 15 HND - 3K FT. NXT CHC FOR
SHWRS ACRS AREA WILL BE AFT 14Z THURS IN RESPONSE TO UPR LO OVR
QUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MB
HYDROLOGY...SLW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT WED APR 27 2005

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-280833-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
440 AM EDT WED APR 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

RAINFALL THAT WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CAUSE AREA WATERWAYS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANY ADDITIONAL...PROLONGED RAINFALL WILL CAUSE AREA WATERWAYS TO
REMAIN HIGH. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING LATE
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT.

MURRAY