Flood in New York, April 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 PM EST THU MAR 31 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE PRECIPITATION.  MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND POINTS EAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.  EVEN HAD THUNDER REPORTED AT MASSENA BEFORE CELL
MOVED INTO CANADA.  NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TOWARD
THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND CONDITIONS STILL LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR LARGER SYSTEM TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND BRING
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH ESF PRODUCT ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. SO NO
CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

EVENSON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 248 PM EST THU MAR 31 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO BE VERY WET W/ HYDRO
CONCERNS...W/ TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A WEAK CD FRNT CURRENTLY SLOWLY MVG
INTO WESTERN NY. PRECIP CURRENTLY MVG NORTH ACCORDING TO RADAR
LOOP...W/ SOME LIGHTNING NOTED NORTH OF LK ONTARIO. MDLS BRING FRNT
THRU TNGT/FRI MORN FROM WEST TO EAST W/ A COUPLE TENTHS QPF. W/
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MVG WELL TO OUR NORTH AS FRNT MVS THRU...MOST
PRECIP/DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF BORDER...SO WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHER
POPS IN NORTHERN CWA. WARM TEMPS AROUND 60F TDY COMBINED W/ THIS
RAIN WILL INCR SNOWMELT INTO RIVERS/STREAMS...SETTING STAGE FOR
LARGE WEEKEND EVENT. MDLS HAVE WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS FOR
A PERIOD ON FRI...BUT TIMEFRAME LOOKS TOO SHORT FOR MUCH CLRING...SO
WILL KEEP CLDS IN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE DEEP SFC LOW
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MVS NORTH FRI NGT INTO
SAT. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SWINGS EAST OVER MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND FORMS CUTOFF...WHICH WILL DEEPEN AND
SLOW THE SFC LOW AS IT MVS NORTH. GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET CONT TO
BRING LOW CLOSE TO CVLY ON SATURDAY...WHILE ETA/NAM TRACKS THIS LOW
SOUTH OF REGION. WILL NEGATE THIS TRACK AND KEEP W/ CONSISTENT GFS
MDL TRACK. GENERAL 1 TO 2 QPF EXPECTED W/ SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. HYDROLOGIST WILL ISSUE ESFBTV
HIGHLIGHTING CONCERNS AND WILL RELAY FOR NEXT FORECASTING SHIFT FOR
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. EXPECTING ALL RAIN FOR SATURDAY...W/ HEAVY
PERIODS AT TIMES. W/ LOW TRACKING NEAR BTV...COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO REGION QUICKER ON NY SIDE...CREATING MIX POTENTIAL W/ ACCUM
SNOWS. 2 TO 3 POTENTIAL OR MORE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DACKS. EXPECTING LOW TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA SUN NGT...SLOWLY CHANGING
PRECIP TO MORE OF MIX RW/SW...BUT AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
STAY WARMER KEEPING RW IN FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIP TYPE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS CUTOFF SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA BY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFT WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL
CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACRS
THE HIGHER TRRN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY
LIFTS AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO FA AND WAA DEVELOPS ON TUES INTO WEDS.
THE LATEST 12Z GFS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED
5H VORT AND LLVL WAA MOVING ACRS WESTERN/SOUTHERN NY ON TUES. WL
CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...BUT IF MODELS CONT TO TREND FURTHER
NORTH WITH PRECIP LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION CHC POPS.
OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE U40S TO MID 50S. LATE TUES INTO WEDS MORE WAA LIFT/MOISTURE
WORKS INTO OUR FA AND WL MENTION CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
RETURN TO AOA NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MID OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CRNT VIS SAT PIC SHOWS BAND OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACRS LK
ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY ATTM. WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE 20S...FEEL THIS
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WL EVAPORATE WHILE INCREASING THE MOISTURE
ACRS OUR FA. WL MENTION TEMPO FOR SOME -RA AT SLK/MSS AFT 21Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WL TRY TO TIME REDEVELOP OF PRECIP FOR AFT 02Z TONIGHT
FOR BTV/MPV. BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW CIGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING TO 020-030 BY MORNING. CRNT SFC OBS CONT TO SHOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10G20KT THRU 03Z...BEFORE DECREASE TO AROUND
10KTS.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS RUNNING WELL TODAY AS THE SNOWMELT GETS GOING IN EARNEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST NIGHT ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWED MELT TO
CONTINUE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 CONTINUES
THE MELT. RIVERS STARTING TO RESPOND TO MELT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING.

BIG HYDRO STORY IS THE UPCOMING PROLONGED WARM RAINFALL ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH FROM SNOWMELT...FORECAST OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND MORE WATER IN THE SNOW YET TO MELT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

WILL ISSUE THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED FRIDAY TO GET A JUMP ON THINGS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NEILSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...HANSON