Hail and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, June 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

CORRECTION TO ISSUANCE TIME ABOVE.

.UPDATE...TINKERED SLIGHTLY WITH POPS...SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY...EXPAND SEVERE STORMS COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AND ALSO DECREASE
CLOUDS A BIT IN THE NW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN MOIST AIR MASS
REGION OF E NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...512 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005. MOISTURE SURGE IS
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND HELPING TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. UPDATE TO ADD FOG AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...251 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005. FAIRLY STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM TONIGHT...NOT
QUITE AS RICH AS YESTERDAY BUT FARTHER WEST. FROM 03Z TO 06Z AN
INCREASE IN DWPTS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. KMAF
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE FORM 850 MB TO 750 MB AND
ALSO 550 MB WITH PW ALMOST AN INCH. UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS OVER OLD MEX. THIS
PATTERN WILL HELP CREATE A DIVERGENT ZONE AT MID TO UPPER LVLS OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY. A WEAK S/W IS INDICATED IN WV IMAGE AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROF ALSO SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS. LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 8
AND 9 PLUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WILL
KEEP THE ISOLD SH/TS BUT WILL ADD SOME MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
LOCALIZED URBAN FF MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALOFT OVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE PAC LOW AND TEMPS INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY MIXING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP REDUCE MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES
WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE POSTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN TUES
ALONG WITH A JET MOVING JUST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH. WINDS SHOULD
HELP DRY THE AIR SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF FORECAST TUE THRU EARLY
THU. MAIN AXIS OF THE PAC LOW ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER LOBE SWINGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THU AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US LATE THU THRU SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP OVER NM FRI THRU LATE SAT WITH THE FOCUS NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS LATE THU AND
SHOULD...ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION...KEEP TEMPS MODERATED ON FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD LATE SUN INTO MON ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW HINTS OF WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM UNTIL 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
NMFZ103-107-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM UNTIL 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
NMFZ103-104-107-108.

&&

23/43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

NMZ001>021-026-071200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
540 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
MOVE EAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. ALSO...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE AND
MOISTURE DECREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE DROPS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...THEREFORE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
140 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

NMZ004>007-011>013-016>021-026-070300-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA
VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY
COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
CHAVES COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO
VALLEY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-QUAY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
140 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
419 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

  CHAVES          COLFAX          CURRY           DE BACA
  GUADALUPE       HARDING         LINCOLN         MORA
  QUAY            ROOSEVELT       SAN MIGUEL      UNION

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA. REMAIN ALERT AND CONTINUE TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR LATEST
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION.

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