Hail and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, February 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST SAT FEB 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...RICH MOISTURE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS FAVORING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER/MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS
TONIGHT THUS WILL MAINTAIN...EXTEND AND EXPAND SNOW ADVISORY THAT
WAS ISSUED BY OUR PREDECESSORS. INITIALLY SOME EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ACCUMULATIONS THEN INTERMITTENT SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE SOURCE AND JET DYNAMICS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FILLS AND GETS ABSORBED
INTO THE GENERAL WEST TO EAST FLOW. FARTHER EAST CONVECTION SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS IN THE EAST INCREASED ON SCHEDULE WITH A FEW SPOTS
EXCEEDING FORECAST NUMBERS. WINDS ARE TO DIMINISH AS WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS SEEN OR NEEDED FOR BEYOND SUNDAY. WE STILL LOOK
TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT. LARGE AND COLDER SYSTEM TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDING TO
THE MIX A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT
GRIDS CONTINUE TO INDICATED AN UNSETTLED AND WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.  GB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  34  46  29  53 /  60  60  20  10
GALLUP..........................  31  45  24  51 /  60  60  20  10
GRANTS..........................  30  50  24  54 /  60  50  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  40  56  31  62 /  30  20   0  10
CHAMA...........................  24  41  17  44 /  70  60  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  30  47  25  50 /  50  30  20   0
RED RIVER.......................  23  43  17  45 /  60  50  30  10
TAOS............................  28  49  24  51 /  50  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  32  47  26  50 /  40  20  20   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  33  50  27  53 /  40  20  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  34  55  28  57 /  30  20  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  39  54  34  56 /  40  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  36  54  34  56 /  40  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  37  52  31  54 /  40  20  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  54  33  56 /  40  20  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  40  61  34  64 /  20  20   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  48  29  50 /  30  20  10   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  28  53  26  55 /  30  20   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  38  61  33  64 /  20  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  36  57  32  57 /  10  10   0   0
RATON...........................  30  55  22  55 /  20  10   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  33  53  26  54 /  20  10  10   0
ROY.............................  34  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  37  62  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  38  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  40  66  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  40  66  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  41  66  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  42  67  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  42  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY
FOR

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2005

NMZ001>021-026-201300-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AREAS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NEW MEXICO. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9
PM MST THIS EVENING. FOUR TO 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY AT
ELEVATIONS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. UP TO 9 OR 10 INCHES
MAY COAT THE HIGHER PEAKS AND WEST FACING SLOPES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FOG PATCHES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW A MILE AT TIMES
IN THE PRECIPITATION AREAS MAINLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN
VISIBILITY CHANGES IN THE FOG AREAS AND THE SNOWPACKED ROADS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...WITH EITHER ISOLATED OR NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

A COLDER AND STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE STATE
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE LOWLAND PORTIONS OF THE STATE NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-40 COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SCATTERED ELSEWHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
ANY SNOW AND RAIN REPORTS WILL BE WELCOME. REMEMBER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

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