Tornado and Hail in New Mexico, April 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
245 PM MDT SAT APR 16 2005

.DISCUSSION..A WX PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF MAY OR JUNE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ITS DEPTH/PERSISTENCE CONTRIBUTING TO VERY
RESPECTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ON BOTH THE AZTEC AND WHITE
SANDS WIND PROFILERS. SIMILAR PROFILES ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER ANVIL DEBRIS WILL LIMIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE MIDDLE RGV NORTHWARD. SO STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE ABQ AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. A CLOSER LOOK AT IR IMAGERY
INDICATES A FEW OF THE TALLER STORM STOPS APPROACHING -65 DEG C...SO
MANAGED TO DEVELOP SOME DECENT UPDRAFTS. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
WAVE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
N-NEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AMONG OTHER THINGS IT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN BROAD REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
AREA...AND FORCE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SW/SC ZONES AFTER
DARK WITH FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO NC/NE
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. GFS GENERATES ANOTHER MCS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HARD TO ARGUE WITH THAT
SCENARIO. NAM ALSO PIN POINT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NE QUARTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THIS
REGION. NOT SURE EITHER THE GFS OR NAM HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. TRAJECTORY OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NC ARIZONA MAY BE
FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...BUT STILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER OUR AREA.

ANTICIPATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE EAST PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RGV...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY. RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EC/NE MAY HOLD BACK TSTM DEVELOPMENT TIL
LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING.  WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS TOMORROW EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FASTER
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL ALONG WITH THIS
TREND.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ONE EXCPEITON TO THIS DRY PATTERN WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHEN THE GFS SHOWS BACKDOOR FRONT
WORKING SOUTH FROM COLORADO. DECENT COOL SURGE INDICATED REMAINDER
OF THE PLAINS FOR MID-WEEK. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SMALL
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW SINKS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IF TUE/WED COLD FRONT IS AS SIGNIFICANT AS
THE GFS SHOWS...THEN WILL NEED TO PUT POP IN FOR THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  75  43  76 /  20   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  35  73  34  74 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  38  72  37  74 /  40  10   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  40  80  39  82 /  10   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  31  64  30  67 /  50  10  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  66  41  71 /  60  10  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  29  58  28  61 /  50  20  20   0
TAOS............................  37  66  36  71 /  60  20  10   0
SANTA FE........................  41  67  40  72 /  60  20  10   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  70  42  74 /  60  20  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  41  73  40  77 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  74  48  78 /  60  20  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  76  45  80 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  72  47  76 /  60  20  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  75  48  79 /  60  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  79  46  83 /  60  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  69  41  70 /  70  20  10   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  71  36  74 /  70  20  20   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  77  47  79 /  50  10  10   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  68  42  70 /  50  20  20   0
RATON...........................  40  68  39  74 /  60  20  20   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  66  38  72 /  70  20  20   0
ROY.............................  42  68  41  73 /  70  30  20   0
CLAYTON.........................  47  72  46  77 /  60  50  40   0
SANTA ROSA......................  45  77  44  80 /  70  30  20   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  50  77  49  82 /  60  50  40   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  77  48  81 /  60  40  20   0
CLOVIS..........................  49  75  48  78 /  50  50  40   0
PORTALES........................  49  76  48  80 /  50  50  40   0
ROSWELL.........................  53  77  52  83 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1115 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2005

NMZ001>021-026-171200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
1115 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN. AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDE THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS TORRANCE...SAN
MIGUEL...AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. THE EASTERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE
FAR NORTHEAST COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS THAT COULD EASILY EXCEED 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
STRONG DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION COULD HELP STRENGTHEN
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
AROUND 3 PM TO 10 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NEW
MEXICO. AREA SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OUR 24 HOUR HOT LINE AT
1-888-386-7637 OR SUBMIT REPORTS ON LINE AT OUR WEB SITE
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ.

KJ