Flash Flooding in New Jersey, September 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

.SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...
TROPICAL AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEGAN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT BECOMING LESS CONCENTRATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE RADIATING CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL OPHELIA MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
BEING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
ZONE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY CONTINUING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TO DRY US
OUT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TOUCH
OFF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

OPHELIAS PROJECTED TRACK WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MEAN THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY
AFFECTED BY THE STORM. BUT UNTIL IT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST,
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR IN THE ALREADY TROPICAL AIR.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP APPRISED OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OPHELIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS
OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
XTRM SE PA SOUTH AND EASTWARD WERE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALFT. THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THREAT OF TSTMS DIMINISHES
WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 THSD FT BUT IN ANY PCPN CIGS COULD DROP
BELOW 1 THSD FT. LATE TONIGHT, STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM PHL SOUTH AND EAST AND LIFR
CONDITIONS FROM PNE-TTN NORTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ARE CONTINUED AS OPHELIA HEADS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
SEAS START OUT AT 2-3 FT BUT INCREASE TO 3-5 OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE A BIT MORE THU AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EAST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.TIDES...
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF OPHELIA PASSING WELL OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST, ONLY LOCALIZED MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND HIGH TIDE THURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ452>455 FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 PM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450-451-470 FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
     8 PM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ431 FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO NOON
     FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...RPW/HW
AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...RNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
520 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>024-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-151030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-QUEEN ANNES-
TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
520 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WITH HURRICANE OPHELIA NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST LATE THIS WEEK, HAZARDOUS WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRUZDLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-151000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-QUEEN ANNES-
TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA
327 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...ANY IMPACTS FROM OPHELIA CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES TO KEEP IT
WELL OFF THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS, WITH ITS CLOSEST PASS
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE DELAWARE COAST ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
DISTANCE, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORM WOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS.  THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS, WHICH
WOULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
ROUGH SEAS, ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. SOME
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY HIGH TIDE.
WITH OPHELIAS TRACK THIS FAR OFFSHORE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OR GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEAR-SHORE COASTAL WATERS AT
THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS LIKELY TO HEAD OUT TO SEA, A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WILL COVER THE REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES, THE HUMIDITY WILL DROP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS, OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS, FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENTS OF OPHELIA.

RNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
418 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

NJZ010-012-015-142230-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON
418 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AND PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN
ESPECIALLY IN MIDDLESEX COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH
PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE AND STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES WILL REACH AROUND
THREE INCHES BY 6 PM ACROSS LARGE PARTS OF MERCER, MIDDLESEX AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES. THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE LIMITED DRIVING
VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND WILL HAMPER THE
EARLY PART OF THE EVENING RUSH. PLEASE BE WARY OF PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND FOR CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. TAKE ROADS THAT ARE
NOT PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

PAZ060-067-142230-
BERKS-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...READING...WEST CHESTER
418 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. SOME OF THEM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT THE RATE OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR AS WELL AS
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO BERKS COUNTY DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE LIMITED DRIVING VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AND WILL HAMPER THE START OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE. PLEASE BE WARY FOR CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS AND TAKE
ROADS THAT ARE LESS PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. STORM TOTALS
BY 6 PM THIS EVENING COULD REACH TWO INCHES IN CENTRAL CHESTER
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN BERKS COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
521 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

NJZ001-007>010-012-142330-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK
521 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

INTO EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE AND PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF SOMERSET AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES AND MOST OF
MORRIS COUNTY. STORM TOTALS WILL REACH AROUND THREE INCHES IN
PARTS OF EASTERN SOMERSET AND MORRIS COUNTIES AND WESTERN
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. STORM TOTALS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE
AND THREE INCHES. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SOME POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN THE PISCATAWAY AREA OF MIDDLESEX COUNTY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE RARITAN
BASIN AS WELL AS MORRIS COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH. PLEASE
BE WARY OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FOR CHANGING ROAD
CONDITIONS. TAKE ROADS THAT ARE NOT PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND DO NOT DRIVE ON ROADS THAT MAY BE BARRICADED.

PAZ060-061-067-068-070-142330-
BERKS-LEHIGH-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-DELAWARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...READING...ALLENTOWN...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...MEDIA
521 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

INTO EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. SOME OF THEM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT THE RATE OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS THAT ARE IN CHESTER AND BERKS COUNTIES WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING PARTS OF DELAWARE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND INTO THE
LEHIGH VALLEY BY 630 PM. THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE LIMITED
DRIVING VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND WILL
HAMPER THE EVENING COMMUTE. PLEASE BE WARY FOR CHANGING ROAD
CONDITIONS AND TAKE ROADS THAT ARE LESS PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. STORM TOTALS HAVE REACHED UP TO TWO INCHES IN CENTRAL
CHESTER COUNTY AND SCATTERED POCKETS OF SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
IN OTHER COUNTIES.

TFG