Hail in Nevada, October 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
313 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVERHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS FIRED OFF A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER INYO
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY EVENING. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY...AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POP GRIDS
WERE NEEDED...AND STILL ANTICIPATE THE MOST ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME DYNAMICS FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM
JETSTREAK AND MODEL DIVQ WILL OPT TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN FOR THAT AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH FAST WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER EURO AND
GFS NOW IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS
CENTRAL CA AND NV THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A LITTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS JET DYNAMICS MAY PROVIDE A
LITTLE EXTRA LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
&&

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE TIMING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN
CWFA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES SATURDAY AS MODEL
TIMING CONSENSUS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING...AND IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS
THIS AFTERNOON. KLAS VICINITY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STORMS BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z AND 20Z.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

DAVIS/MORGAN

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