Hail in Nevada, November 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PST THU NOV 10 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY POPPING IN DIFLUENT ZONE
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE EVENING
POPS IN SOME ZONES AND ADD THUNDER TO OTHERS. NO CHANGES BEYOND
FIRST PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM PST THU NOV 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. FAIRLY LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
CWA LATE THIS EVENING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ITSELF...BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. MAIN AREA OF
FOCUS WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD PUT THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO MOHAVE
COUNTY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPPED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OTHER
AREAS. PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...BUT
SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE UPWARD OF HALF AN INCH. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS OF MOHAVE COUNTY COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HELD DOWN BY THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

CUT-OFF LOW WRAPPED UP NICELY OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO
NEAR SAN DIEGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. WV LOOP DOES INDICATE SOME
WESTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH GOES ALONG WELL WITH THE MODELS AND
CURRENT PACKAGE. AHEAD OF THE LOW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE PACIFIC. RADAR RETURNS ARE
VIRTUALLY NIL IN THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY OVER CALIFORNIA ZONES AS WIND BEHIND
THE LOW RUSHES DOWN. SPEEDS AT 850 ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER 25 KTS SO
INCREASED THE WINDS A BIT FOR FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR SAN BERNARDINO.
LIFTED VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AFTER THE LOW PASSES
TO THE EAST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO EAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OVER THE PACIFIC DURING THE BEGINNING PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND THE EURO. EURO IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE U.S. AND KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTER FURTHER
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC AS MODELS ALL CARVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. WILL FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND
UKMET...WITH TEMPS PEAKING ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
KEPT TEMPS BELOW 12Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR NOW BECAUSE OF MIXING CONCERNS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WILL ALSO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS
PICK UP ALONG THE RIVER AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHERN UTAH. FOR NOW...10 TO 20 MPH DOWN
THE RIVER IN THE GRIDS SHOULD COVER IT.

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
AT KLAS.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

MORGAN/GORELOW/DAVIS

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS