Hail in Nebraska, September 24, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...
EXCELLENT CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE
FRONTAL POSITION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
TWO FOR POPS AND GUIDANCE TEMPS.

LEAD IMPULSE NOW PASSING WRN CO AND SC WY ATTM WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE
INCREASE PER WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES IN. BEST AREA FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INTO NWRN KS AND SWRN NEBR THIS
EVENING WITH A LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT DROPPING INTO
THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. SLOW PROGRESSION OF FRONT STALLING IN
SWRN NEBR DURING THE AFTN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO 80 TO
85 DEGREES SOUTH WITH COOLER TEMPS NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE SB CAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. LIMITING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
MODERATE CAP. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD NORTH OF SFC FRONT WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
AND IMPULSE PASSING ACROSS. CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWER
60S AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFT. A
FEW EVENING SHOWERS PSBLE SOUTHEAST THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. DRY AND
WARMER MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE CONSISTENT WITH A FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHCS OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN A PERSISTENT LEESIDE TROUGH
AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-241030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
346 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 /246 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING
AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH LARGE HAIL
A LESSER THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ONEILL TO OGALLALA. THIS IS WHERE MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDTIONS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S AND MID 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

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