Hail in Nebraska, September 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
734 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE....

00Z SUBJECTIVE SFC ALYS INDCD LO NR KBVN WITH A DRYLINE SWD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB. SFC CDFNT EXTNDD FM NR KBKX SWWD INTO KONL AND WAS
MOVING TO THE SE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE CDFNT FM SERN
SD INTO CNTRL NEB AND THEN INTO NRN KS ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY DUE TO THAT THIS ACTIVITY IN NEB IS MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THE CAPPING INVERSION NEVER TOTALLY ERODED PER
LATEST VARIOUS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESS...WLD
EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE IN THE BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NEB AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO NE NEB. THE
ACTIVITY OVR SRN NEB IS MORE TIED TO THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE IS AND THUS DO NOT FEEL THIS WL MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA.
SVR WX SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NW AFTER
815 PM AS MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40
KT. ALTHOUGH LONG LIVED SUPERCELL OVR VALLEY COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO...FEEL THREAT IS MORE OF A WIND/HAIL THREAT AS
IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOSING SFC
INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN...AND STORM
COVERAGE/INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION...FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND IT WILL TAKE A SUPERCELL WITH SUSTAINED ROTATION TO GET ANY HAIL
LARGER THAN QUARTERS. WITH MORE STORM MERGERS IN OUR AREA...FEEL
LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS NOT MUCH OF A THREAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
501 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-131230-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
501 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER TOWARD DAWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ALONG...AND AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED THIS EVENING BY A LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
MAY ACT TO CAP MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER
IS CAPABLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION .

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
556 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

NEZ011-016-017-030-031-042-130500-
PLATTE NE-BOONE NE-MADISON NE-ANTELOPE NE-PIERCE NE-KNOX NE-
556 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 779 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1 AM
CDT TUESDAY...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
     KNOX...PIERCE...ANTELOPE...MADISON...BOONE AND PLATTE

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
820 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             6 NNW ORCHARD           42.42N 98.29W
09/12/2005  1.25 INCH        ANTELOPE           NE   PUBLIC

&&

JB