Hail in Nebraska, October 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATING QUITE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
COVERING THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 6 HOURS...EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SRN MN THROUGH NE NEB...TO NW
KS. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND
90 IN SE NEB. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 70 DEGREES. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MSAS LIS WERE AROUND -5 AND MLCAPES
ABOUT 1000J/KG. MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH
500MB HT FALLS FROM THIS MORNINGS UAA AROUND 60 METERS. IT APPEARS
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SITUATION LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNS ARE FOR
POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN.
OBVIOUS FROM SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE TO TAP
INTO AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO TREK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTH IN PLACE MOST OF THE EVENING. AS EXPECTED SHEAR
PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE PRETTY STOUT. WITH THAT AND THE
COMBINATION OF ANTICIPATED LOW LCL & LFC...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT A
TORNADO OR TWO. LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AT ANY RATE...PRETTY GOOD BET THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE PCPN. MET MOS 12HR QPF SHOWS UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BY 12Z WED...WITH ABOUT A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT APPEARS TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CWA
WED MORNING. WILL LEAVE GOING SMALL POPS FOR ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL MORNING PCPN. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED EVENING. MEANWHILE...
WE FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT CAA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE PLAINS AND NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...OTHER THAN MINOR TEMP TWEAKS...NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LATE FRIDAY MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN WEST COAST TROF DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THRU SAT MORNING WITH 500MB HT FALLS AROUND 10DAM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UPPER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A MODEST WARM UP TO AROUND
70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PCPN COMES
LATE SUNDAY AFTN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA AS
LIFT BECOMES ENHANCED VIA UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY. DECENT AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
SHOWN AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM ERN SD THRU SW NEB. SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP PCPN CHANCES GOING
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. CANT RULE OUT ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY ON SO WILL ADD
TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
405 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 S ALBION              41.66N 98.00W
10/04/2005  M0.88 INCH       BOONE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEWALD