Hail in Nebraska, June 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
208 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...VIGOROUS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A 100-120 MPH JET STREAK RACING ACROSS WYOMING IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL TIGHTEN THIS FRONT...AND PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
FRONT STALLS OUT LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER
TONIGHT WITH A DRY SLOT AFFECTING POINTS NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
CHADRON LINE. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT LEAVES BEHIND A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CWA REMAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER NORTHEAST THRU THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. ALL MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH DECENT QPF BAND
ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS WESTERN AREAS IN DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND BEST DYNAMICS
SHIFT EAST. REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA MOVES EAST THRU
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THIS UPPER FEATURE PASSES BY. THEN AS
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROF...MARKED DRYING AND WARMING.
AS NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW COMING TO SOME WHAT
OF AN AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED...FOCUSING ON DIGGING PAC NW UPPER
LOW.  HEIGHTS/WINDS AT THE UPPER LEVELS BACK IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
SYSTEM WITH INCREASING WAA.  HAVE DECREASED/INCREASED POPS/TEMPS
RESPECTFULLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
LIEU OF SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY INCREASING SFC WESTERLY
WINDS.  WHAT HAPPENS TO POTENT SYSTEM MIDWEEK...DOES IT GET SHEARED
OFF TO OUR NW OR WOBBLE TOWARDS OUR VICINITY.  NONETHELESS...EXPECT
ABOVE AVG TEMPS AND DRY WX AS WE APPROACH MID WEEK.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

KP/STARK/DEMKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1011 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2005

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ060-068-021130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-NIOBRARA-GOSHEN-
1011 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER AS WELL AS 60 MPH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

WYZ059-061>067-069-070-021130-
CONVERSE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-
CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1011 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.