Hail in Nebraska, August 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1043 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD 50 TO 60 KT H3 JET ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHRTWV TROF OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS. ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO HAVE
DRIED SOME OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH MOST OF THE H85 MOISTURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 15Z SUBJECTIVE SFC ANLYS
WAS FAIRLY COMPLICATED WITH A WK AREA OF LO PRES OVR N-CNTRL NEB
WITH A SFC TROF SWD INTO CNTRL KS. A WRMFNT SEEMED TO BE DVLPNG FM
LO SEWD THRU KBVN TO KOLU TO KAFK. STG ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE
310 K SFC OVR THE DVLPNG WRMFNT IS LEADING TO SCT -TSRA DVLPNG OVR
THE NW CWA. RUCII INDCS A TONGUE OF H85 MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
NWD INTO ERN NEB WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LIFT IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AND THUS HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE CHC POPS
OVR THE NW CWA. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVR THE CNTRL/SRN CWA AS CLDS CLR AND MOISTURE TO THE S
ADVECTS NWD. AS SHRTWV ENERGY FM THE W ENTERS THE CWA THIS
AFTN...MORE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DVPL AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. FREEZING LVL IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND INSTABILITY MAY
ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN PROGGED BY MODELS SINCE THE -14 C AT H5 AT
KLBF/KRAP WAS NOT MODELED WELL BY 12Z MODELS. THUS ISO SVR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER MAX TMPS OVR THE SRN
CWA WHERE CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON LATER AND TO ADJUST WINDS TO
MEET CURRENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. .

NEW ZFP/GRIDS ALREADY OUT.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR PCPN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM
TX NWD INTO ERN NE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE FAR NORTH PART OF NERN NE...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH NEAR THE
KS AND MO BORDERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY
WEAK. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN ERN NE AND SWRN IA REALLY DOES NOT
CHANGE TODAY. BELIEVE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY END BY 12Z...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS LATER. CAPE
VALUES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS.
SO...HAVE POPS FROM 20-30 PERCENT GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SINCE THE
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP.

SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. 06Z NAM OUTPUT HAS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE NW FLOW. LEFT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER AND MID 60S SOUTH. INTRODUCED MORE CLOUDS ALL AREAS MONDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SERN NE/SWRN IA. NAM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME PCPN THERE...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z GFS WAS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT...BUT IT DID GENERATE PCPN.

STRONG TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED THE SPEED OF THE FRONT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NAM APPEARS
TOO FAST WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. STAYED
CLOSER TO THE TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z GFS. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY COULD SLOW THINGS
DOWN EVEN MORE. LATER IN THE WEEK...MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PRETTY
MUCH ZONAL. EXTENDED FORECAST STILL SEEMS MAINLY DRY AFTER ABOUT
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-281900-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
515 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO FREMONT AND
OAKLAND IOWA. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS...
MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
AND INTERACT WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

MILLER