Hail in Nebraska, August 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB FRONT INDICATED
ON MORNING UA ANALYSIS. FORECAST EXPECTED TO REMAIN CHALLENGING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF FASTER
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST BY BOTH NAM AND GFS TO
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LESS CERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIP BEYOND THIS TIME AS MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING OF
SURFACE BOUNDARYS WITH GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH INITIAL FRONT AND ALSO
INDICATING A SECONDARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN A SPLIT PRECIPITATION PATTERN
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE TWO BOUNDARYS DURING THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE TROF DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST BY
TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
500 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111131-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
500 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. LATER THIS
EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
STRONG PUSH OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SEVERE HAIL...BUT THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LESSON AFTER THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT TONIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST
CENTRAL IOWA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE DAY
AND EVENING ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

BOUSTEAD