Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
215 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  FOCUS IS ON FRONTAL POSITION
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER PATTERN REVEALED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ACTIVE WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE UPPER TROUGH RESIDED ACROSS CANADA.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WERE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO AS
INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AS OF MIDDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAD LIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY KMCK
TO KHSI AND KJYR.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY REACHED
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING...BUT IS
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION.  HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH GFS FRONTAL POSITION THAN THE NAM.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE H85 FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THE
H85 FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOWLEVEL JET TO 40KTS...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 315K SFC AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE DECENT CHANCES FOR TSTMS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL BY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE
80...AND FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY...THEN NEXT SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING STRONGER MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS OUR AREA AND DRIVE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH...
WHEREAS NAM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
STALLS THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.  NAM SUGGESTING DECENT CHCS FOR
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.  ULTIMATELY
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL IMPACT WHERE FRONT WILL RESIDE
BY FRIDAY AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE OR REDUCE POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD UNTIL FRONTAL POSITION CAN BE BETTER DEFINED.

.LONG TERM...00Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN
COMPLICATED THIS GO AROUND...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPS. SFC FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLEARING NEBRASKA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY LIKELY UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
WEST/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS JUST WHERE THE BOUNDARY
WILL END UP...WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE WEEKEND WEATHER.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A
BIT...SHOWING THE FRONT BEING CONVECTIVELY FORCED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH
CONTINUES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY MUCH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN/
CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT.  AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS THE GFS IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED
BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND MIGHT BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.
HOWEVER...EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
POOR AND HAVE OPTED TO MAKE FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO REALIGN
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES TO SATURDAY AS FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO AREA
REGARDLESS OF THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS ALMOST A WAIT AND SEE GAME AS CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP OR NOT...TEMPS WILL END UP MUCH COOLER THAN LATE AS UPR TROF
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WITH H85 TEMPS COOLING TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 14C (DEPENDING ON SOLUTIONS) AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER
AND EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE FRONTSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE PLAINS...TEMPS ON SAT/SUN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE
70S...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COOLER READINGS SHOULD PRECIP
MATERIALIZE.  HAVE LOWERED GOING NUMBERS EVEN A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THIS POSSIBILITY. BEYOND SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD CUT OFF
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON MONDAY AS UPR TROF PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKING HOLD.  THEREAFTER...QUESTIONS ABOUND ABOUT
TIMING OF ANY FUTURE SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE REGION IS
HEADED TOWARD A MUCH WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD AS EVIDENCED BY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MUCH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TIME AS UPR TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

FAY/LAWRENCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A STORM
OR TWO MAY PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
MONITORED AND REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

FAY