Hail in Missouri, September 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ALREADY SEEING STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES IN
AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW JUST EAST OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OK.
MODIFICATION TO 12Z KSGF SOUNDING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
GIVES CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND LI AROUND -9...SO STORMS HAVE PLENTY
OF ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE INCLUDED
FLOOD AND MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREATS IN LATEST HWO.

INITIATING SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING DROPS OFF...SO HAVE CARRIED EARLY EVENING
STORMS...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
FURTHER LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIP. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASING EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM 500 MB HEIGHT PROGS OFF
THE 12Z NAM RUN SHOWED A WEAK WAVE OVERTOPPING UPPER RIDGE
AXIS...BUT 18Z RUN HAS WASHED OUT THIS FEATURE. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR TOMORROW.

UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S.. LATEST NAM AND GFS KEEP MIDWEEK COLD FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH
IT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
GRIDS FOR WED/THURS. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL TIGHTENING UP ON
FRIDAY...INCLUDED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. OTHERWISE STILL
LOOKS WARM AND DRY THROUGH EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME VICINITY THUNDER WILL BE NEEDED FOR TAF
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL UPDATES TO TEMPO THUNDER
DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER AROUND 02Z...WILL CARRY PROMINENT
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

IZZI/TERRY

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD
  PRODUCE:
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
    HEAVY RAIN...
    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...
    AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

    MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO WEST PLAINS LINE UNTIL 8 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND
  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
  LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
  PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
  TWO...WITH VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     HAIL             WENTWORTH               36.98N 94.08W
09/03/2005  1.00 INCH        NEWTON             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

MOZ102-031840-
BARRY-
111 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 105 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHEAST OF CASSVILLE...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF MONETT. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. IF YOU ARE NEAR THIS
STORM SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

OTHER ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM CASSVILLE TO
MONETT ACROSS BARRY COUNTY.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW WENTWORTH          36.97N 94.09W
09/03/2005                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS FLOODING ON HIGHWAY J AND JJ WITH
            ROADS NOW IMPASSABLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

MOZ077-032045-
BARTON-
259 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS QUICKLY DEVELOPING 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GOLDEN CITY. THIS STORM WAS DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER BARTON COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM.

IZZI