Hail in Kansas, September 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH LATE TMRW...AS WE MAKE A TRANSITION AWAY FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO
MORE OF AN H5 RDGG PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES...PCPN SHOULD BE SLOWLY
ON THE DECREASE. ANOTHER WAVE EVIDENT OVER HIGH PLAINS ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL AND LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT FCST WITH CHC
POPS LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALL CWA TMRW
FORNN WITH MEAN MOISTURE AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. BY
AFTERNOON...APPEARS IT WILL BE LESSENING AND MOVING EAST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN. THAT IS CURRENT FCST AND WILL MAINTAIN
SAME. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE
RDGG/WAA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME READINGS AT OR NEAR 90. AMT
OF CLOUDS AGAIN WILL BE DETERMINING FACTOR. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SFC GRADIENT WITH UPPER RDGG TO
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SSE SFC FLOW BY THIS TIME TMRW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS/CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP FCST DRY SATURDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE CWA. DO NOT FEEL
THE GFS IS CORRECT IN KEEPING SOME LINGERING PCPN INTO SUNDAY AS IT
APPEARS IT IS TOO STRONG AND AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE...WHICH MAY BE CONVECTIVELY
FEEDBACK GENERATED TO START WITH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP
TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH CORE OF WARMER
AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND 850
TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ON TUESDAY...A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THAT NIGHT AND INTO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AND WAVE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENING
RIDGE INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALL IN
ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED SINCE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALREADY MENTIONED. A RETURN TO A SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MAY THEN TAKE PLACE INTO FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE
FRIDAY FCST DRY WITH A RETURN TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AS FRONT
WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL HELP TO LIMIT HIGHS GENERALLY THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
432 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.