Hail in Missouri, June 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...

AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF OUTFLOW
FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS THAT BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF WELCOMED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED MIDDLE 60S OVER ALL
BUT FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH A CU-LESS SKY NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A DIFFERENT STORY TOWARD THE AR BORDER WHERE A
HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OLD GUST FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE ADVECTING 70F DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH A VIGOROUS CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW CELLS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SLOW MOVING PULSE STORMS WILL BE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES MANAGE TO OVERCOME THE
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING IN THE AREA. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL GO WITH
A 30 POP BASED ON SCATTERED COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44 (FIGURING NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E IS LIKELY GIVEN
15-20 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON). ANY STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE A VERY DIFFICULT
FORECAST ON THE MESOSCALE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
STRONGER/SEVERE CONVECTION WITH FOCI BEING AN UNKNOWN NUMBER AND
LAYOUT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. WITH THAT
SAID...LOW CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST AFTERNOON/EVENING) CERTAINLY
WARRANTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE
MODEL DISPARITY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL MASS FIELDS. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OF WRN MO/SE KS AS A FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVE TILT
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STILL EXPECTING T.S. ARLENES PRESENCE TO ALTER THE SCENARIO AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...AND WILL MAINTAIN YESTERDAYS THINKING THAT
MOST LIKELY TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEGLECTING MESOSCALE EFFECTS ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S GENERALLY LOOK ON TRACK
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER...BUT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD FOR NOW.
SCATTERED CUMULUS OF 3000 TO 4000 FEET WILL SLOWLY ADVECT BACK INTO
THE KSGF TERMINAL AREA AFTER 21Z THROUGH SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

BOOKBINDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
450 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE
  ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN
  TO OSAGE BEACH.

  DISCUSSION:

  THE AIRMASS HAD BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
  INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING NORTH OF OUT ARKANSAS TO
  PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
  WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
  WINDS POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
  SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
  INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
  AT THIS TIME EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOOKBINDER/FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

MOZ078-092345-
CEDAR-
541 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CEDAR COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF STOCKTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

MOZ088-094-100015-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-
612 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN JASPER AND NORTHERN AND
WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SARCOXIE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONETT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

IF YOU SEE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHING...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

MOZ069-081-100015-
CAMDEN-LACLEDE-
618 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CAMDEN AND NORTHERN
LACLEDE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LEBANON TO RICHLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LEBANON TO 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMDENTON...AND MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LACLEDE AND SOUTHERN CAMDEN COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

IF YOU SEE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHING...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

MOZ078-100045-
CEDAR-
647 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CEDAR COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CEDAR COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTY AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AT 5
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...EVENT SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             GOODHOPE                36.92N 92.80W
06/09/2005  1.00 INCH        DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0545 PM     HAIL             RICHLAND                37.85N 92.42W
06/09/2005  0.75 INCH        PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHLAND                37.85N 92.42W
06/09/2005                   PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF RICHLAND. BUSINESSES AND HOMES
            FLOODED.

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N STOUTLAND           37.89N 92.52W
06/09/2005                   CAMDEN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY A

0635 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RICHLAND                37.85N 92.42W
06/09/2005  4.00 INCH        PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

AF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

MOZ058-071-100100-
MARIES-PHELPS-
700 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARIES AND PHELPS
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF
VIENNA TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOOLITTLE TO NEWBURG...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ROLLA TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROLLA
TO 12 MILES WEST OF ROLLA. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIENNA BY 725 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MARIES AND CENTRAL PHELPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF NEWBURG AND DOOLITTLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

IF YOU SEE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHING...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IZZI